The European Union has published new regulations applying to retail Forex, CFD, and the few remaining binary options brokerages in its territory. If you have an account with one such brokerage, the regulations will affect you when they come into force during the late spring and summer. This article will outline how the new regulations will impact your bottom line.
Details of the New ESMA Regulations
In March 2018, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), the financial regulator and supervisor of the European Union, announced new regulations concerning the provision of contracts for differences (CFDs) and binary options to retail investors. It is unclear exactly when the regulations will come into force, but some time in May or June 2018 looks to be the most likely date, and Forex and CFD brokerages located within the European Union (including the United Kingdom, for the time being) will be forced to comply. The regulations will need to be renewed by ESMA every three months to remain in force over the long term.
The regulation concerning binary options is very simple: they may not be sold. In simple terms, this is the end of binary options as a product sold from within the European Union.
The regulations concerning CFDs are more complex but still relatively straightforward. Firstly, there is some confusion as to what exactly is a CFD, with many traders thinking that spot Forex is not considered a CFD and will therefore be exempt from the new regulations. They are wrong: spot Forex is technically defined as a CFD. In fact, every asset you see available for trading at Forex / CFD brokers will most likely be subject to the new regulations.
The new regulations will implement the following changes for retail client accounts (more on who is a retail client; later).
-
The maximum leverage which can be offered will be 30 to 1. That will apply to major currency pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, etc.
-
Other currency pairs, major equity indices, and gold will be subject to a maximum leverage of 20 to 1.
-
Individual equities cannot be offered with leverage greater than 5 to 1.
-
Cryptocurrencies are subject to a maximum leverage of 2 to 1.
-
Brokers will be required to provide negative balance protection, meaning it will be impossible to lose more money than you deposit.
-
Brokers will be required to close a clients open positions when the account equity reaches 50% of the required minimum margin by all open positions. This ;margin call; provision can be tricky to understand, so will be explained in more detail later.
-
Bonuses or any other form of trading incentives may not be offered.
-
Brokers will be required to display a standardized risk warning which will include the percentage of their clients who lose money over a defined period.
Understanding the ;Margin Call; Regulation
The best way to understand the 50% margin call provision is to use an example. Imagine a client opens an account with a Forex broker, depositing ;100 in total. The client opens a short trade in EUR/USD, by going short one mini-lot (one tenth of a full lot). One full lot of EUR/USD is worth ;10,000, meaning one mini-lot is worth ;1,000. To find out the minimum margin required to support that trade, we divide the size of the trade (;1,000) by 30, which comes to ;33.33. This is the minimum required margin to maintain the trade. Half of that amount is ;16.67. Now assume the trade goes against the client, with the price of EUR/USD rising above the entry price. As soon as the price rises far enough to produce a floating loss of ;83.33 (;100 - ;16.67), the broker must close the trade out, even if the trade has no stop loss or has not yet reached the stop loss. In theory, this means that a client;s account can never reach zero. Examples involving multiple open trades will be more complex, but will operate according to the same principles.
What Will This Mean for Traders?
The regulations will only apply to ;retail clients;, so you might try to apply to be classed as a professional trader. To get a broker to classify you as anything other than a retail client, you will have to show you have financial qualifications, a large amount of liquid assets, plenty of experience trading, and usually that you also trade frequently. Most traders will be unable to qualify, although it is worth noting that one London-based brokerage, IG Group, has stated that their proportion of clients now classified as recently increased from 5% to 15% of their total customers.
The major impact these regulations will have on traders is simple ndash; the maximum trade size they can possibly make at brokers regulated in the European Union will shrink. Many will say that the maximum leverage limits still offer far more than any trader could need, and I agree. I am wary of leverage and I hate to see anyone using leverage greater than 3 to 1 for Forex under any conditions, or any leverage at all for stocks and cryptocurrencies. Commodities can also fluctuate wildly in value. Too many people forget that the biggest danger in leverage is not overly large position sizing, it is that a ldquo;black swan rdquo; event such as the CHF flash crash of 2015 could happen and wipe out your account through huge price slippage. However, there is another factor that is widely forgotten: why assume that a trader rsquo;s account at one Forex broker is all the money they have in the world? For example, a trader might have $10,000 in the bank. If they deposit $1,000 at a broker offering maximum leverage of 300 to 1, they can trade up to $300,000. At a leverage limit of 30 to 1, that trader will have to deposit their entire $10,000 fund to trade at the same size. In a real sense, that trader might now have to take on more risk to operate in the same way, because if the broker goes bust, while beforehand they might lose $1,000 now they could lose $10,000! Even without negative balance protection, that broker would still have to come after them to try to get an extra $9,000 which they theoretically risk. Yet we saw after the CHF crash that brokers don rsquo;t come after every single client whose losses exceeded their deposit, due to legal costs and reputational issues. This shows that although the stated purpose of the regulation is to protect traders from excessive losses, the story is not as simple as you may think.
Beyond having to deposit more margin, and automatic margin calls, the other major change for traders will be that they will enjoy negative balance protection. This is a positive development which hopefully will make brokerages focus more heavily on the risks they are taking with their business model in the market. At the same time, a possible side effect of the new regulation is the potential increase in average deposits, leading to brokerages being more stable and better capitalized with client funds. Two final notes: brokerages will have to report on their websites the percentages of clients who are losing and making money, although the period over which the statistics must refer to is currently not clear. This will help to shed light on the debate over what percentage of retail traders are profitable, although some brokerages have already released what they claim to be accurate statistics showing that clients with larger account sizes tend to perform better as traders. Additionally, bonuses and promotions will be banned. I welcome this, as not only do they trivialize the serious business of trading, they are almost always a trick offering the illusion of free money whilst preventing traders from withdrawing any profits until a large number of trades are made (read the fine print the next time you squo;).
What If Yoursquo;re Not Happy Remaining in the EU?
Traders with accounts at affected brokers who cannot obtain professional status classification and feel they really need higher leverage than the ESMA limits outlined above might look for a solution by opening accounts with brokers outside the European Union. The most obvious destination would be Australia or New Zealand, where it will still be possible to find reasonably well-regulated Forex brokerages offering leverage in the range of 400 to 1. A recent development that is not talked about much is the growing difficulty of transferring funds to and from Forex brokerages in less tightly regulated jurisdictions. You might decide to open an account with a brokerage in Vanuatu, but you may find that a bank within the European Union might just refuse to send your money there for a deposit. This means that going far offshore, depending upon where you live, may not be a feasible option. In any case, the new regule impossible to live with, and overall there is a compelling case that they are a net benefit to any trader, so why migrate?
How to Pick the Best Trends | Trading Forex
Everyone’s heard that trading with the trend is the easiest way to put the odds in your favor. Yet there’s uncertainty over how to define trends and how to pick the best trends to trade. Here’s a few tips concerning the best definitions and filters to use when trading with the trend.
Defining a Trend
It is surprising how much dispute there is over the question of how to define a trend. You can find a wide range of different opinions. One popular choice as a filter to determine trend is the 200-period exponential moving average. Another is the 50-period simple moving average having crossed above or below the 200-period simple moving average. If you search, you can find a lot of other technical, indicator-based definitions. In fact, the dictionary definition of a trend can be summarized as a consecutive series of higher lows and highs (an uptrend), or lower lows and lows (a downtrend). Unfortunately, that is rather difficult to define mathematically, although most traders who have put in a reasonable amount of time reading price charts can tell you whether an attractive trend exists just by using their own eyes. The question remains, is there a way to define the existence of any trend, which we can use to at least identify that some type of trend exists, before we try to apply filters to pick out the most useful, profitable trends? I believe there is a simple answer: a basic upwards trend exists if the price is above where it was 3 months ago, and downwards if below. In markets, the rise of fall of price over a relatively extended period such as this has been shown to provide an edge. As the Forex market is more mean-reverting than most liquid speculative markets, the optimal period to use is a little shorter than it is in other markets. Results can be improved by stipulating that the trend must also be above or below its level measured 6 months ago. A true upwards trend, for example, has the price above where it was both 3 and 6 months ago.Using these measurement as a baseline, let’s look at some statistics for the two most liquid currency pairs, EUR/USD and USD/JPY. Assume that over the past 16 years, you had bought each pair at the start of any week it was above its prices from both 3 months and 6 months ago, and exited the trade at the weekly close, or sold vice versa if below these historical prices. Ignoring spreads, commissions, and any possible positive or negative overnight swap, the results would have been as follows:
This trading methodology is not presented as a complete strategy, just as an indication of how profitable a trend can be. There is clearly an edge here: most weeks saw moves from open to close in the direction of the prevailing trend. The question is, can this simple strategy be improved by filtering the trends somehow, and only taking the trades when the trend is somehow seen as stronger or more reliable?
Using the ADX Indicator as a Trend Filter
The ADX indicator purports to show the “strength” of a trend. It does this by measuring the total amount of directional movement in a single direction over a given recent period. The value of the ADX indicator can range from 0 to 100. Typically, a trend is said to be strong when the value of ADX is 25 or higher. It seems like an appropriate filter to apply to our trend definition. I applied it to the most recent 3-month equivalent by using a period of 13 weeks (the “short term” component of our defined trends), and examined the results that would have been achieved by using ADX levels of 25 and 30 as filters, which were as follows:Both ADX levels improve the win percentage and average profit per trade, the latter increases considerably. Note that although ADX 30 produced a lower average profit, its win percentage was slightly higher than what would have been achieved using ADX 25.
Using “Blue Sky” as a Trend Filter
“Blue sky” is an area of price that has not been visited for a long time. An ancient belief of traders says that the price moves more quickly and directionally through price areas which have recently been empty. This is the theory behind breakout trading. After all, if the price makes a new 6-month high by breaking out about that level, by definition, it has not traded there for at least 6 months. Perhaps we can apply the following filter to our advantage: examine the weeks where the price made a new 3-month high or low price during the previous week. In other words, there was a breakout last week of the 3-month price channel in the direction of the prevailing trend. Here are what the results would have looked like:Interestingly, this “blue sky” filter would have given even better results than using strong ADX values as a filter. When both filters are combined, the results are even better.
Conclusion
The most reliable non-discretionary definition of whether a trend exists is the simple measurement of whether the price is both higher and lower than it was using a historical lookback. Three-month and six-month time periods have worked very well in Forex markets in recent years. Stronger trends produce more reliable short-term trading results than weaker trends, and the strength of a trend can be easily measured using the ADX (Average Directional Index) indicator.Source
How to Pick the Best Trends | Trading Forex
Everyone’s heard that trading with the trend is the easiest way to put the odds in your favor. Yet there’s uncertainty over how to define trends and how to pick the best trends to trade. Here’s a few tips concerning the best definitions and filters to use when trading with the trend.
Defining a Trend
It is surprising how much dispute there is over the question of how to define a trend. You can find a wide range of different opinions. One popular choice as a filter to determine trend is the 200-period exponential moving average. Another is the 50-period simple moving average having crossed above or below the 200-period simple moving average. If you search, you can find a lot of other technical, indicator-based definitions. In fact, the dictionary definition of a trend can be summarized as a consecutive series of higher lows and highs (an uptrend), or lower lows and lows (a downtrend). Unfortunately, that is rather difficult to define mathematically, although most traders who have put in a reasonable amount of time reading price charts can tell you whether an attractive trend exists just by using their own eyes. The question remains, is there a way to define the existence of any trend, which we can use to at least identify that some type of trend exists, before we try to apply filters to pick out the most useful, profitable trends? I believe there is a simple answer: a basic upwards trend exists if the price is above where it was 3 months ago, and downwards if below. In markets, the rise of fall of price over a relatively extended period such as this has been shown to provide an edge. As the Forex market is more mean-reverting than most liquid speculative markets, the optimal period to use is a little shorter than it is in other markets. Results can be improved by stipulating that the trend must also be above or below its level measured 6 months ago. A true upwards trend, for example, has the price above where it was both 3 and 6 months ago.Using these measurement as a baseline, let’s look at some statistics for the two most liquid currency pairs, EUR/USD and USD/JPY. Assume that over the past 16 years, you had bought each pair at the start of any week it was above its prices from both 3 months and 6 months ago, and exited the trade at the weekly close, or sold vice versa if below these historical prices. Ignoring spreads, commissions, and any possible positive or negative overnight swap, the results would have been as follows:
This trading methodology is not presented as a complete strategy, just as an indication of how profitable a trend can be. There is clearly an edge here: most weeks saw moves from open to close in the direction of the prevailing trend. The question is, can this simple strategy be improved by filtering the trends somehow, and only taking the trades when the trend is somehow seen as stronger or more reliable?
Using the ADX Indicator as a Trend Filter
The ADX indicator purports to show the “strength” of a trend. It does this by measuring the total amount of directional movement in a single direction over a given recent period. The value of the ADX indicator can range from 0 to 100. Typically, a trend is said to be strong when the value of ADX is 25 or higher. It seems like an appropriate filter to apply to our trend definition. I applied it to the most recent 3-month equivalent by using a period of 13 weeks (the “short term” component of our defined trends), and examined the results that would have been achieved by using ADX levels of 25 and 30 as filters, which were as follows:Both ADX levels improve the win percentage and average profit per trade, the latter increases considerably. Note that although ADX 30 produced a lower average profit, its win percentage was slightly higher than what would have been achieved using ADX 25.
Using “Blue Sky” as a Trend Filter
“Blue sky” is an area of price that has not been visited for a long time. An ancient belief of traders says that the price moves more quickly and directionally through price areas which have recently been empty. This is the theory behind breakout trading. After all, if the price makes a new 6-month high by breaking out about that level, by definition, it has not traded there for at least 6 months. Perhaps we can apply the following filter to our advantage: examine the weeks where the price made a new 3-month high or low price during the previous week. In other words, there was a breakout last week of the 3-month price channel in the direction of the prevailing trend. Here are what the results would have looked like:Interestingly, this “blue sky” filter would have given even better results than using strong ADX values as a filter. When both filters are combined, the results are even better.
Conclusion
The most reliable non-discretionary definition of whether a trend exists is the simple measurement of whether the price is both higher and lower than it was using a historical lookback. Three-month and six-month time periods have worked very well in Forex markets in recent years. Stronger trends produce more reliable short-term trading results than weaker trends, and the strength of a trend can be easily measured using the ADX (Average Directional Index) indicator.Source
How to Pick the Best Trends | Trading Forex
Everyone’s heard that trading with the trend is the easiest way to put the odds in your favor. Yet there’s uncertainty over how to define trends and how to pick the best trends to trade. Here’s a few tips concerning the best definitions and filters to use when trading with the trend.
Defining a Trend
It is surprising how much dispute there is over the question of how to define a trend. You can find a wide range of different opinions. One popular choice as a filter to determine trend is the 200-period exponential moving average. Another is the 50-period simple moving average having crossed above or below the 200-period simple moving average. If you search, you can find a lot of other technical, indicator-based definitions. In fact, the dictionary definition of a trend can be summarized as a consecutive series of higher lows and highs (an uptrend), or lower lows and lows (a downtrend). Unfortunately, that is rather difficult to define mathematically, although most traders who have put in a reasonable amount of time reading price charts can tell you whether an attractive trend exists just by using their own eyes. The question remains, is there a way to define the existence of any trend, which we can use to at least identify that some type of trend exists, before we try to apply filters to pick out the most useful, profitable trends? I believe there is a simple answer: a basic upwards trend exists if the price is above where it was 3 months ago, and downwards if below. In markets, the rise of fall of price over a relatively extended period such as this has been shown to provide an edge. As the Forex market is more mean-reverting than most liquid speculative markets, the optimal period to use is a little shorter than it is in other markets. Results can be improved by stipulating that the trend must also be above or below its level measured 6 months ago. A true upwards trend, for example, has the price above where it was both 3 and 6 months ago.Using these measurement as a baseline, let’s look at some statistics for the two most liquid currency pairs, EUR/USD and USD/JPY. Assume that over the past 16 years, you had bought each pair at the start of any week it was above its prices from both 3 months and 6 months ago, and exited the trade at the weekly close, or sold vice versa if below these historical prices. Ignoring spreads, commissions, and any possible positive or negative overnight swap, the results would have been as follows:
This trading methodology is not presented as a complete strategy, just as an indication of how profitable a trend can be. There is clearly an edge here: most weeks saw moves from open to close in the direction of the prevailing trend. The question is, can this simple strategy be improved by filtering the trends somehow, and only taking the trades when the trend is somehow seen as stronger or more reliable?
Using the ADX Indicator as a Trend Filter
The ADX indicator purports to show the “strength” of a trend. It does this by measuring the total amount of directional movement in a single direction over a given recent period. The value of the ADX indicator can range from 0 to 100. Typically, a trend is said to be strong when the value of ADX is 25 or higher. It seems like an appropriate filter to apply to our trend definition. I applied it to the most recent 3-month equivalent by using a period of 13 weeks (the “short term” component of our defined trends), and examined the results that would have been achieved by using ADX levels of 25 and 30 as filters, which were as follows:Both ADX levels improve the win percentage and average profit per trade, the latter increases considerably. Note that although ADX 30 produced a lower average profit, its win percentage was slightly higher than what would have been achieved using ADX 25.
Using “Blue Sky” as a Trend Filter
“Blue sky” is an area of price that has not been visited for a long time. An ancient belief of traders says that the price moves more quickly and directionally through price areas which have recently been empty. This is the theory behind breakout trading. After all, if the price makes a new 6-month high by breaking out about that level, by definition, it has not traded there for at least 6 months. Perhaps we can apply the following filter to our advantage: examine the weeks where the price made a new 3-month high or low price during the previous week. In other words, there was a breakout last week of the 3-month price channel in the direction of the prevailing trend. Here are what the results would have looked like:Interestingly, this “blue sky” filter would have given even better results than using strong ADX values as a filter. When both filters are combined, the results are even better.
Conclusion
The most reliable non-discretionary definition of whether a trend exists is the simple measurement of whether the price is both higher and lower than it was using a historical lookback. Three-month and six-month time periods have worked very well in Forex markets in recent years. Stronger trends produce more reliable short-term trading results than weaker trends, and the strength of a trend can be easily measured using the ADX (Average Directional Index) indicator.Source
How to Pick the Best Trends | Trading Forex
Everyone’s heard that trading with the trend is the easiest way to put the odds in your favor. Yet there’s uncertainty over how to define trends and how to pick the best trends to trade. Here’s a few tips concerning the best definitions and filters to use when trading with the trend.
Defining a Trend
It is surprising how much dispute there is over the question of how to define a trend. You can find a wide range of different opinions. One popular choice as a filter to determine trend is the 200-period exponential moving average. Another is the 50-period simple moving average having crossed above or below the 200-period simple moving average. If you search, you can find a lot of other technical, indicator-based definitions. In fact, the dictionary definition of a trend can be summarized as a consecutive series of higher lows and highs (an uptrend), or lower lows and lows (a downtrend). Unfortunately, that is rather difficult to define mathematically, although most traders who have put in a reasonable amount of time reading price charts can tell you whether an attractive trend exists just by using their own eyes. The question remains, is there a way to define the existence of any trend, which we can use to at least identify that some type of trend exists, before we try to apply filters to pick out the most useful, profitable trends? I believe there is a simple answer: a basic upwards trend exists if the price is above where it was 3 months ago, and downwards if below. In markets, the rise of fall of price over a relatively extended period such as this has been shown to provide an edge. As the Forex market is more mean-reverting than most liquid speculative markets, the optimal period to use is a little shorter than it is in other markets. Results can be improved by stipulating that the trend must also be above or below its level measured 6 months ago. A true upwards trend, for example, has the price above where it was both 3 and 6 months ago.Using these measurement as a baseline, let’s look at some statistics for the two most liquid currency pairs, EUR/USD and USD/JPY. Assume that over the past 16 years, you had bought each pair at the start of any week it was above its prices from both 3 months and 6 months ago, and exited the trade at the weekly close, or sold vice versa if below these historical prices. Ignoring spreads, commissions, and any possible positive or negative overnight swap, the results would have been as follows:
This trading methodology is not presented as a complete strategy, just as an indication of how profitable a trend can be. There is clearly an edge here: most weeks saw moves from open to close in the direction of the prevailing trend. The question is, can this simple strategy be improved by filtering the trends somehow, and only taking the trades when the trend is somehow seen as stronger or more reliable?
Using the ADX Indicator as a Trend Filter
The ADX indicator purports to show the “strength” of a trend. It does this by measuring the total amount of directional movement in a single direction over a given recent period. The value of the ADX indicator can range from 0 to 100. Typically, a trend is said to be strong when the value of ADX is 25 or higher. It seems like an appropriate filter to apply to our trend definition. I applied it to the most recent 3-month equivalent by using a period of 13 weeks (the “short term” component of our defined trends), and examined the results that would have been achieved by using ADX levels of 25 and 30 as filters, which were as follows:Both ADX levels improve the win percentage and average profit per trade, the latter increases considerably. Note that although ADX 30 produced a lower average profit, its win percentage was slightly higher than what would have been achieved using ADX 25.
Using “Blue Sky” as a Trend Filter
“Blue sky” is an area of price that has not been visited for a long time. An ancient belief of traders says that the price moves more quickly and directionally through price areas which have recently been empty. This is the theory behind breakout trading. After all, if the price makes a new 6-month high by breaking out about that level, by definition, it has not traded there for at least 6 months. Perhaps we can apply the following filter to our advantage: examine the weeks where the price made a new 3-month high or low price during the previous week. In other words, there was a breakout last week of the 3-month price channel in the direction of the prevailing trend. Here are what the results would have looked like:Interestingly, this “blue sky” filter would have given even better results than using strong ADX values as a filter. When both filters are combined, the results are even better.
Conclusion
The most reliable non-discretionary definition of whether a trend exists is the simple measurement of whether the price is both higher and lower than it was using a historical lookback. Three-month and six-month time periods have worked very well in Forex markets in recent years. Stronger trends produce more reliable short-term trading results than weaker trends, and the strength of a trend can be easily measured using the ADX (Average Directional Index) indicator.Source
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