ESMA Regulations – What Will Less Leverage Mean? | Trading Forex
The European Union has published new regulations applying to retail Forex, CFD, and the few remaining binary options brokerages in its territory. If you have an account with one such brokerage, the regulations will affect you when they come into force during the late spring and summer. This article will outline how the new regulations will impact your bottom line.
Details of the New ESMA Regulations
In March 2018, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), the financial regulator and supervisor of the European Union, announced new regulations concerning the provision of contracts for differences (CFDs) and binary options to retail investors. It is unclear exactly when the regulations will come into force, but some time in May or June 2018 looks to be the most likely date, and Forex and CFD brokerages located within the European Union (including the United Kingdom, for the time being) will be forced to comply. The regulations will need to be renewed by ESMA every three months to remain in force over the long term.
The regulation concerning binary options is very simple: they may not be sold. In simple terms, this is the end of binary options as a product sold from within the European Union.
The regulations concerning CFDs are more complex but still relatively straightforward. Firstly, there is some confusion as to what exactly is a CFD, with many traders thinking that spot Forex is not considered a CFD and will therefore be exempt from the new regulations. They are wrong: spot Forex is technically defined as a CFD. In fact, every asset you see available for trading at Forex / CFD brokers will most likely be subject to the new regulations.
The new regulations will implement the following changes for retail client accounts (more on who is a retail client; later).
-
The maximum leverage which can be offered will be 30 to 1. That will apply to major currency pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, etc.
-
Other currency pairs, major equity indices, and gold will be subject to a maximum leverage of 20 to 1.
-
Individual equities cannot be offered with leverage greater than 5 to 1.
-
Cryptocurrencies are subject to a maximum leverage of 2 to 1.
-
Brokers will be required to provide negative balance protection, meaning it will be impossible to lose more money than you deposit.
-
Brokers will be required to close a clients open positions when the account equity reaches 50% of the required minimum margin by all open positions. This ;margin call; provision can be tricky to understand, so will be explained in more detail later.
-
Bonuses or any other form of trading incentives may not be offered.
-
Brokers will be required to display a standardized risk warning which will include the percentage of their clients who lose money over a defined period.
Understanding the ;Margin Call; Regulation
The best way to understand the 50% margin call provision is to use an example. Imagine a client opens an account with a Forex broker, depositing ;100 in total. The client opens a short trade in EUR/USD, by going short one mini-lot (one tenth of a full lot). One full lot of EUR/USD is worth ;10,000, meaning one mini-lot is worth ;1,000. To find out the minimum margin required to support that trade, we divide the size of the trade (;1,000) by 30, which comes to ;33.33. This is the minimum required margin to maintain the trade. Half of that amount is ;16.67. Now assume the trade goes against the client, with the price of EUR/USD rising above the entry price. As soon as the price rises far enough to produce a floating loss of ;83.33 (;100 - ;16.67), the broker must close the trade out, even if the trade has no stop loss or has not yet reached the stop loss. In theory, this means that a client;s account can never reach zero. Examples involving multiple open trades will be more complex, but will operate according to the same principles.
What Will This Mean for Traders?
The regulations will only apply to ;retail clients;, so you might try to apply to be classed as a professional trader. To get a broker to classify you as anything other than a retail client, you will have to show you have financial qualifications, a large amount of liquid assets, plenty of experience trading, and usually that you also trade frequently. Most traders will be unable to qualify, although it is worth noting that one London-based brokerage, IG Group, has stated that their proportion of clients now classified as recently increased from 5% to 15% of their total customers.
The major impact these regulations will have on traders is simple ndash; the maximum trade size they can possibly make at brokers regulated in the European Union will shrink. Many will say that the maximum leverage limits still offer far more than any trader could need, and I agree. I am wary of leverage and I hate to see anyone using leverage greater than 3 to 1 for Forex under any conditions, or any leverage at all for stocks and cryptocurrencies. Commodities can also fluctuate wildly in value. Too many people forget that the biggest danger in leverage is not overly large position sizing, it is that a ldquo;black swan rdquo; event such as the CHF flash crash of 2015 could happen and wipe out your account through huge price slippage. However, there is another factor that is widely forgotten: why assume that a trader rsquo;s account at one Forex broker is all the money they have in the world? For example, a trader might have $10,000 in the bank. If they deposit $1,000 at a broker offering maximum leverage of 300 to 1, they can trade up to $300,000. At a leverage limit of 30 to 1, that trader will have to deposit their entire $10,000 fund to trade at the same size. In a real sense, that trader might now have to take on more risk to operate in the same way, because if the broker goes bust, while beforehand they might lose $1,000 now they could lose $10,000! Even without negative balance protection, that broker would still have to come after them to try to get an extra $9,000 which they theoretically risk. Yet we saw after the CHF crash that brokers don rsquo;t come after every single client whose losses exceeded their deposit, due to legal costs and reputational issues. This shows that although the stated purpose of the regulation is to protect traders from excessive losses, the story is not as simple as you may think.
Beyond having to deposit more margin, and automatic margin calls, the other major change for traders will be that they will enjoy negative balance protection. This is a positive development which hopefully will make brokerages focus more heavily on the risks they are taking with their business model in the market. At the same time, a possible side effect of the new regulation is the potential increase in average deposits, leading to brokerages being more stable and better capitalized with client funds. Two final notes: brokerages will have to report on their websites the percentages of clients who are losing and making money, although the period over which the statistics must refer to is currently not clear. This will help to shed light on the debate over what percentage of retail traders are profitable, although some brokerages have already released what they claim to be accurate statistics showing that clients with larger account sizes tend to perform better as traders. Additionally, bonuses and promotions will be banned. I welcome this, as not only do they trivialize the serious business of trading, they are almost always a trick offering the illusion of free money whilst preventing traders from withdrawing any profits until a large number of trades are made (read the fine print the next time you squo;).
What If Yoursquo;re Not Happy Remaining in the EU?
Traders with accounts at affected brokers who cannot obtain professional status classification and feel they really need higher leverage than the ESMA limits outlined above might look for a solution by opening accounts with brokers outside the European Union. The most obvious destination would be Australia or New Zealand, where it will still be possible to find reasonably well-regulated Forex brokerages offering leverage in the range of 400 to 1. A recent development that is not talked about much is the growing difficulty of transferring funds to and from Forex brokerages in less tightly regulated jurisdictions. You might decide to open an account with a brokerage in Vanuatu, but you may find that a bank within the European Union might just refuse to send your money there for a deposit. This means that going far offshore, depending upon where you live, may not be a feasible option. In any case, the new regule impossible to live with, and overall there is a compelling case that they are a net benefit to any trader, so why migrate?
Is Bitcoin in a Bubble? | Trading Forex
As the crypto-currency Bitcoin reaches spectacular new highs on dramatically increased levels of volatility, traders and investors alike are questioning whether it’s a good idea to trade this asset or whether now is the time to stay to the side before it devalues. Most of the debate is focused on whether Bitcoin is in a bubble, and whether it is viable as a long-term investment. I ask whether it is possible to put a fair value on Bitcoin, what factors will affect its market price, and what traders should be looking at before they decide to get involved in trading Bitcoin.
What is a Bubble?
My preferred term for what is often known as an “asset bubble”, “price bubble”, or “investment bubble” is “speculative bubble”, because invariably, the peaks of these bubbles are caused by very intense speculative activity. A speculative bubble occurs when an asset is far, far above anything close to what its real (it might be better to say “sustainable”) value might be. A better way of describing it might be to note that because all speculative bubbles burst, a bubble can be defined as an asset rising exponentially to extremely inflated prices and then crashing down and settling at a level which is far less than its original price (typically a fall of 75% or more). A speculative bubble is characterized by both the rise and fall, particularly the fall, taking place over brief time periods.The economist Dr. John Paul Rodrigue produced an excellent diagram (shown below) illustrating the typical progress of a speculative bubble, not only by time and value, but in terms of the psychological state of actual and potential market participants.
Let’s compare the above diagram to a current daily price chart of Bitcoin in U.S. Dollars:
A case can be made that, at the time this article was written, Bitcoin is somewhere around the “Denial” stage just after “New Paradigm” from Dr. Rodrigue’s diagram, which the chart seems to match closely. It is a case worth considering, as if incorrect, Bitcoin might still be worth buying, while if it is true, a short sell could be a great trade. Of course, a better option for you might to be not to trade Bitcoin at all, but what Bitcoin is and how it works is something that must be fully considered before any call can be made on whether it is in a bubble.
What is Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is a digital currency which may be freely purchased. The hallmark of a currency is whether it is considered legal tender. Bitcoin is not there yet by a long way, but is being accepted by more and more nodes within the global economic matrix, including major companies such as Microsoft, Bloomberg and Virgin. Most currencies are backed by the central banks of nation states, who have the power to determine supply to some extent, and therefore can affect the exchange rates of their currency. Bitcoin is backed by no central authority. More importantly, new Bitcoins can only be created by computers after they have probabilistically spent a similar amount to the “real value” of a bitcoin. Creating a Bitcoin requires creating and running computer hardware with an internet connection. If it can be calculated how much it costs on average to generate a Bitcoin, that value to may be used to estimate Bitcoin’s “fair value”.”Fair Value” of Bitcoin
It is known that Bitcoin’s generation software, worldwide, allocates a block of 12.5 bitcoins every 10 minutes on average. An academic study conducted in 2016 estimated that approximately $8,333 is expended on electricity alone by Bitcoin miners every 10 minutes, which suggests that the opportunity cost of a Bitcoin is at least $667. Factoring in the amortized value of all the hardware and software used in Bitcoin mining is a more challenging estimation, but the same academic study found these costs bring the total amount expended per new bitcoin to $800. The Bitcoin generation process has another feature which makes it impossible to call $800 a “fair price”, though: after a certain number of Bitcoins are generated, the number of bitcoins awarded per block will halve, doubling the “fair value” per new bitcoin. It is expected with a high degree of confidence that this halving will occur in 2021, and that the last bitcoin will be mined in the year 2140. This means that the “fair value” of a new Bitcoin will double to approximately $1,600, and as interest rates are very low and are expected to remain so, the discounted future value of a new bitcoin is arguably about the same amount today. When the study quoted was conducted, the price of Bitcoin was well below $1,600, and at a current price of $2,265 would be about 42% overvalued. Interestingly, the chart shows a clear pivotal point which has acted as resistance and support at $1,600 which might not be a coincidence, as the study I have quoted is probably the most publicized credible attempt at calculating a “fair value” for Bitcoin.Monetarism, Bitcoin, and the Dream of the Gold Standard
Once 21 million Bitcoins have been created (“mined”), it will become impossible to create new Bitcoins. Bitcoins may be destroyed when owners of bitcoin misplace their passwords, but bitcoin, if it becomes de facto legal tender throughout most of the global economy and remains under the same decentralized and fixed regime, will be a currency that the world has never seen: one that will be completely impervious to inflation, and whose supply will remain forever finite. Bitcoin is often compared to gold and silver, which have historically acted as the primary stores of value, and are cited now by monetarist and libertarian economists as an eternal answer to the endless debasement of fiat currencies. In fact, Bitcoin will be firmer: gold and silver can be mined and hoarded, and their relative values in real terms sometimes fluctuate. In theory, bitcoin will not suffer from this problem.The Bitcoin Bubble Answered
It seems logical to assume that provided Bitcoin survives in its present uncontrolled and fixed state, it will inevitably appreciate against all fiat currencies, with the only discounting arising from the question of whether it will become fully accepted as a convenient, usable legal tender. A factor within this is whether other crypto-currencies could eventually usurp Bitcoin’s leading role: it is worth noting that the capitalization of other crypto-currencies has begun to exceed Bitcoin’s capitalization. If you believe that Bitcoin will maintain its dominance over other individual crypto-currencies and eventually become widely accepted, then there is every reason to believe that a Bitcoin is worth at least $1,600 right now. If this is true, then Bitcoin might be overbought and due a substantial correction, but it could not be said to be in a bubble comparable to Tulip Mania or the first British joint stock companies of the 17th century. This case also supports Bitcoin as an attractive medium to long-term investment.Unfortunately, I see a dangerous overreach in assuming that Bitcoin is going to be a freely convertible and fungible currency, i.e. that it will be available to everyone who wants it and will be generally accepted as payment. This is far from assured, and with governments finding considerable value in maintaining fiat currency systems which may be inflated to write off debt, why would they sit back and allow bitcoin to usurp national currencies as a medium of exchange? If Bitcoin is going to remain the preserve of bohemian tech enthusiasts, much as it is today with less than 6 million individual users, then it is in a bubble and is enormously overvalued.
Trading Bitcoin
If you are trading Bitcoin with a short-term time horizon, keep position sizing very small, as volatility is dramatically high. The 30-day ATR (Average True Range) has more than tripled over the past 6 weeks. Although the chart still looks quite bullish technically, we might already see the beginning of a major first lower high just above $2,600. It can also be expected that there will be support at $2,000 and within the area just below that price. A major correction should be expected, as in a huge appreciation of any asset when people who know nothing about it are starting to buy it. Long-term investors would probably do well to wait a while before buying at least part of their intended position, ideally to a level below $2,000 or, even better, $1,600.Source
Is Bitcoin in a Bubble? | Trading Forex
As the crypto-currency Bitcoin reaches spectacular new highs on dramatically increased levels of volatility, traders and investors alike are questioning whether it’s a good idea to trade this asset or whether now is the time to stay to the side before it devalues. Most of the debate is focused on whether Bitcoin is in a bubble, and whether it is viable as a long-term investment. I ask whether it is possible to put a fair value on Bitcoin, what factors will affect its market price, and what traders should be looking at before they decide to get involved in trading Bitcoin.
What is a Bubble?
My preferred term for what is often known as an “asset bubble”, “price bubble”, or “investment bubble” is “speculative bubble”, because invariably, the peaks of these bubbles are caused by very intense speculative activity. A speculative bubble occurs when an asset is far, far above anything close to what its real (it might be better to say “sustainable”) value might be. A better way of describing it might be to note that because all speculative bubbles burst, a bubble can be defined as an asset rising exponentially to extremely inflated prices and then crashing down and settling at a level which is far less than its original price (typically a fall of 75% or more). A speculative bubble is characterized by both the rise and fall, particularly the fall, taking place over brief time periods.The economist Dr. John Paul Rodrigue produced an excellent diagram (shown below) illustrating the typical progress of a speculative bubble, not only by time and value, but in terms of the psychological state of actual and potential market participants.
Let’s compare the above diagram to a current daily price chart of Bitcoin in U.S. Dollars:
A case can be made that, at the time this article was written, Bitcoin is somewhere around the “Denial” stage just after “New Paradigm” from Dr. Rodrigue’s diagram, which the chart seems to match closely. It is a case worth considering, as if incorrect, Bitcoin might still be worth buying, while if it is true, a short sell could be a great trade. Of course, a better option for you might to be not to trade Bitcoin at all, but what Bitcoin is and how it works is something that must be fully considered before any call can be made on whether it is in a bubble.
What is Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is a digital currency which may be freely purchased. The hallmark of a currency is whether it is considered legal tender. Bitcoin is not there yet by a long way, but is being accepted by more and more nodes within the global economic matrix, including major companies such as Microsoft, Bloomberg and Virgin. Most currencies are backed by the central banks of nation states, who have the power to determine supply to some extent, and therefore can affect the exchange rates of their currency. Bitcoin is backed by no central authority. More importantly, new Bitcoins can only be created by computers after they have probabilistically spent a similar amount to the “real value” of a bitcoin. Creating a Bitcoin requires creating and running computer hardware with an internet connection. If it can be calculated how much it costs on average to generate a Bitcoin, that value to may be used to estimate Bitcoin’s “fair value”.”Fair Value” of Bitcoin
It is known that Bitcoin’s generation software, worldwide, allocates a block of 12.5 bitcoins every 10 minutes on average. An academic study conducted in 2016 estimated that approximately $8,333 is expended on electricity alone by Bitcoin miners every 10 minutes, which suggests that the opportunity cost of a Bitcoin is at least $667. Factoring in the amortized value of all the hardware and software used in Bitcoin mining is a more challenging estimation, but the same academic study found these costs bring the total amount expended per new bitcoin to $800. The Bitcoin generation process has another feature which makes it impossible to call $800 a “fair price”, though: after a certain number of Bitcoins are generated, the number of bitcoins awarded per block will halve, doubling the “fair value” per new bitcoin. It is expected with a high degree of confidence that this halving will occur in 2021, and that the last bitcoin will be mined in the year 2140. This means that the “fair value” of a new Bitcoin will double to approximately $1,600, and as interest rates are very low and are expected to remain so, the discounted future value of a new bitcoin is arguably about the same amount today. When the study quoted was conducted, the price of Bitcoin was well below $1,600, and at a current price of $2,265 would be about 42% overvalued. Interestingly, the chart shows a clear pivotal point which has acted as resistance and support at $1,600 which might not be a coincidence, as the study I have quoted is probably the most publicized credible attempt at calculating a “fair value” for Bitcoin.Monetarism, Bitcoin, and the Dream of the Gold Standard
Once 21 million Bitcoins have been created (“mined”), it will become impossible to create new Bitcoins. Bitcoins may be destroyed when owners of bitcoin misplace their passwords, but bitcoin, if it becomes de facto legal tender throughout most of the global economy and remains under the same decentralized and fixed regime, will be a currency that the world has never seen: one that will be completely impervious to inflation, and whose supply will remain forever finite. Bitcoin is often compared to gold and silver, which have historically acted as the primary stores of value, and are cited now by monetarist and libertarian economists as an eternal answer to the endless debasement of fiat currencies. In fact, Bitcoin will be firmer: gold and silver can be mined and hoarded, and their relative values in real terms sometimes fluctuate. In theory, bitcoin will not suffer from this problem.The Bitcoin Bubble Answered
It seems logical to assume that provided Bitcoin survives in its present uncontrolled and fixed state, it will inevitably appreciate against all fiat currencies, with the only discounting arising from the question of whether it will become fully accepted as a convenient, usable legal tender. A factor within this is whether other crypto-currencies could eventually usurp Bitcoin’s leading role: it is worth noting that the capitalization of other crypto-currencies has begun to exceed Bitcoin’s capitalization. If you believe that Bitcoin will maintain its dominance over other individual crypto-currencies and eventually become widely accepted, then there is every reason to believe that a Bitcoin is worth at least $1,600 right now. If this is true, then Bitcoin might be overbought and due a substantial correction, but it could not be said to be in a bubble comparable to Tulip Mania or the first British joint stock companies of the 17th century. This case also supports Bitcoin as an attractive medium to long-term investment.Unfortunately, I see a dangerous overreach in assuming that Bitcoin is going to be a freely convertible and fungible currency, i.e. that it will be available to everyone who wants it and will be generally accepted as payment. This is far from assured, and with governments finding considerable value in maintaining fiat currency systems which may be inflated to write off debt, why would they sit back and allow bitcoin to usurp national currencies as a medium of exchange? If Bitcoin is going to remain the preserve of bohemian tech enthusiasts, much as it is today with less than 6 million individual users, then it is in a bubble and is enormously overvalued.
Trading Bitcoin
If you are trading Bitcoin with a short-term time horizon, keep position sizing very small, as volatility is dramatically high. The 30-day ATR (Average True Range) has more than tripled over the past 6 weeks. Although the chart still looks quite bullish technically, we might already see the beginning of a major first lower high just above $2,600. It can also be expected that there will be support at $2,000 and within the area just below that price. A major correction should be expected, as in a huge appreciation of any asset when people who know nothing about it are starting to buy it. Long-term investors would probably do well to wait a while before buying at least part of their intended position, ideally to a level below $2,000 or, even better, $1,600.Source
Is Bitcoin in a Bubble? | Trading Forex
As the crypto-currency Bitcoin reaches spectacular new highs on dramatically increased levels of volatility, traders and investors alike are questioning whether it’s a good idea to trade this asset or whether now is the time to stay to the side before it devalues. Most of the debate is focused on whether Bitcoin is in a bubble, and whether it is viable as a long-term investment. I ask whether it is possible to put a fair value on Bitcoin, what factors will affect its market price, and what traders should be looking at before they decide to get involved in trading Bitcoin.
What is a Bubble?
My preferred term for what is often known as an “asset bubble”, “price bubble”, or “investment bubble” is “speculative bubble”, because invariably, the peaks of these bubbles are caused by very intense speculative activity. A speculative bubble occurs when an asset is far, far above anything close to what its real (it might be better to say “sustainable”) value might be. A better way of describing it might be to note that because all speculative bubbles burst, a bubble can be defined as an asset rising exponentially to extremely inflated prices and then crashing down and settling at a level which is far less than its original price (typically a fall of 75% or more). A speculative bubble is characterized by both the rise and fall, particularly the fall, taking place over brief time periods.The economist Dr. John Paul Rodrigue produced an excellent diagram (shown below) illustrating the typical progress of a speculative bubble, not only by time and value, but in terms of the psychological state of actual and potential market participants.
Let’s compare the above diagram to a current daily price chart of Bitcoin in U.S. Dollars:
A case can be made that, at the time this article was written, Bitcoin is somewhere around the “Denial” stage just after “New Paradigm” from Dr. Rodrigue’s diagram, which the chart seems to match closely. It is a case worth considering, as if incorrect, Bitcoin might still be worth buying, while if it is true, a short sell could be a great trade. Of course, a better option for you might to be not to trade Bitcoin at all, but what Bitcoin is and how it works is something that must be fully considered before any call can be made on whether it is in a bubble.
What is Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is a digital currency which may be freely purchased. The hallmark of a currency is whether it is considered legal tender. Bitcoin is not there yet by a long way, but is being accepted by more and more nodes within the global economic matrix, including major companies such as Microsoft, Bloomberg and Virgin. Most currencies are backed by the central banks of nation states, who have the power to determine supply to some extent, and therefore can affect the exchange rates of their currency. Bitcoin is backed by no central authority. More importantly, new Bitcoins can only be created by computers after they have probabilistically spent a similar amount to the “real value” of a bitcoin. Creating a Bitcoin requires creating and running computer hardware with an internet connection. If it can be calculated how much it costs on average to generate a Bitcoin, that value to may be used to estimate Bitcoin’s “fair value”.”Fair Value” of Bitcoin
It is known that Bitcoin’s generation software, worldwide, allocates a block of 12.5 bitcoins every 10 minutes on average. An academic study conducted in 2016 estimated that approximately $8,333 is expended on electricity alone by Bitcoin miners every 10 minutes, which suggests that the opportunity cost of a Bitcoin is at least $667. Factoring in the amortized value of all the hardware and software used in Bitcoin mining is a more challenging estimation, but the same academic study found these costs bring the total amount expended per new bitcoin to $800. The Bitcoin generation process has another feature which makes it impossible to call $800 a “fair price”, though: after a certain number of Bitcoins are generated, the number of bitcoins awarded per block will halve, doubling the “fair value” per new bitcoin. It is expected with a high degree of confidence that this halving will occur in 2021, and that the last bitcoin will be mined in the year 2140. This means that the “fair value” of a new Bitcoin will double to approximately $1,600, and as interest rates are very low and are expected to remain so, the discounted future value of a new bitcoin is arguably about the same amount today. When the study quoted was conducted, the price of Bitcoin was well below $1,600, and at a current price of $2,265 would be about 42% overvalued. Interestingly, the chart shows a clear pivotal point which has acted as resistance and support at $1,600 which might not be a coincidence, as the study I have quoted is probably the most publicized credible attempt at calculating a “fair value” for Bitcoin.Monetarism, Bitcoin, and the Dream of the Gold Standard
Once 21 million Bitcoins have been created (“mined”), it will become impossible to create new Bitcoins. Bitcoins may be destroyed when owners of bitcoin misplace their passwords, but bitcoin, if it becomes de facto legal tender throughout most of the global economy and remains under the same decentralized and fixed regime, will be a currency that the world has never seen: one that will be completely impervious to inflation, and whose supply will remain forever finite. Bitcoin is often compared to gold and silver, which have historically acted as the primary stores of value, and are cited now by monetarist and libertarian economists as an eternal answer to the endless debasement of fiat currencies. In fact, Bitcoin will be firmer: gold and silver can be mined and hoarded, and their relative values in real terms sometimes fluctuate. In theory, bitcoin will not suffer from this problem.The Bitcoin Bubble Answered
It seems logical to assume that provided Bitcoin survives in its present uncontrolled and fixed state, it will inevitably appreciate against all fiat currencies, with the only discounting arising from the question of whether it will become fully accepted as a convenient, usable legal tender. A factor within this is whether other crypto-currencies could eventually usurp Bitcoin’s leading role: it is worth noting that the capitalization of other crypto-currencies has begun to exceed Bitcoin’s capitalization. If you believe that Bitcoin will maintain its dominance over other individual crypto-currencies and eventually become widely accepted, then there is every reason to believe that a Bitcoin is worth at least $1,600 right now. If this is true, then Bitcoin might be overbought and due a substantial correction, but it could not be said to be in a bubble comparable to Tulip Mania or the first British joint stock companies of the 17th century. This case also supports Bitcoin as an attractive medium to long-term investment.Unfortunately, I see a dangerous overreach in assuming that Bitcoin is going to be a freely convertible and fungible currency, i.e. that it will be available to everyone who wants it and will be generally accepted as payment. This is far from assured, and with governments finding considerable value in maintaining fiat currency systems which may be inflated to write off debt, why would they sit back and allow bitcoin to usurp national currencies as a medium of exchange? If Bitcoin is going to remain the preserve of bohemian tech enthusiasts, much as it is today with less than 6 million individual users, then it is in a bubble and is enormously overvalued.
Trading Bitcoin
If you are trading Bitcoin with a short-term time horizon, keep position sizing very small, as volatility is dramatically high. The 30-day ATR (Average True Range) has more than tripled over the past 6 weeks. Although the chart still looks quite bullish technically, we might already see the beginning of a major first lower high just above $2,600. It can also be expected that there will be support at $2,000 and within the area just below that price. A major correction should be expected, as in a huge appreciation of any asset when people who know nothing about it are starting to buy it. Long-term investors would probably do well to wait a while before buying at least part of their intended position, ideally to a level below $2,000 or, even better, $1,600.Source
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