ESMA Regulations – What Will Less Leverage Mean? | Trading Forex
The European Union has published new regulations applying to retail Forex, CFD, and the few remaining binary options brokerages in its territory. If you have an account with one such brokerage, the regulations will affect you when they come into force during the late spring and summer. This article will outline how the new regulations will impact your bottom line.
Details of the New ESMA Regulations
In March 2018, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), the financial regulator and supervisor of the European Union, announced new regulations concerning the provision of contracts for differences (CFDs) and binary options to retail investors. It is unclear exactly when the regulations will come into force, but some time in May or June 2018 looks to be the most likely date, and Forex and CFD brokerages located within the European Union (including the United Kingdom, for the time being) will be forced to comply. The regulations will need to be renewed by ESMA every three months to remain in force over the long term.
The regulation concerning binary options is very simple: they may not be sold. In simple terms, this is the end of binary options as a product sold from within the European Union.
The regulations concerning CFDs are more complex but still relatively straightforward. Firstly, there is some confusion as to what exactly is a CFD, with many traders thinking that spot Forex is not considered a CFD and will therefore be exempt from the new regulations. They are wrong: spot Forex is technically defined as a CFD. In fact, every asset you see available for trading at Forex / CFD brokers will most likely be subject to the new regulations.
The new regulations will implement the following changes for retail client accounts (more on who is a retail client; later).
-
The maximum leverage which can be offered will be 30 to 1. That will apply to major currency pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, etc.
-
Other currency pairs, major equity indices, and gold will be subject to a maximum leverage of 20 to 1.
-
Individual equities cannot be offered with leverage greater than 5 to 1.
-
Cryptocurrencies are subject to a maximum leverage of 2 to 1.
-
Brokers will be required to provide negative balance protection, meaning it will be impossible to lose more money than you deposit.
-
Brokers will be required to close a clients open positions when the account equity reaches 50% of the required minimum margin by all open positions. This ;margin call; provision can be tricky to understand, so will be explained in more detail later.
-
Bonuses or any other form of trading incentives may not be offered.
-
Brokers will be required to display a standardized risk warning which will include the percentage of their clients who lose money over a defined period.
Understanding the ;Margin Call; Regulation
The best way to understand the 50% margin call provision is to use an example. Imagine a client opens an account with a Forex broker, depositing ;100 in total. The client opens a short trade in EUR/USD, by going short one mini-lot (one tenth of a full lot). One full lot of EUR/USD is worth ;10,000, meaning one mini-lot is worth ;1,000. To find out the minimum margin required to support that trade, we divide the size of the trade (;1,000) by 30, which comes to ;33.33. This is the minimum required margin to maintain the trade. Half of that amount is ;16.67. Now assume the trade goes against the client, with the price of EUR/USD rising above the entry price. As soon as the price rises far enough to produce a floating loss of ;83.33 (;100 - ;16.67), the broker must close the trade out, even if the trade has no stop loss or has not yet reached the stop loss. In theory, this means that a client;s account can never reach zero. Examples involving multiple open trades will be more complex, but will operate according to the same principles.
What Will This Mean for Traders?
The regulations will only apply to ;retail clients;, so you might try to apply to be classed as a professional trader. To get a broker to classify you as anything other than a retail client, you will have to show you have financial qualifications, a large amount of liquid assets, plenty of experience trading, and usually that you also trade frequently. Most traders will be unable to qualify, although it is worth noting that one London-based brokerage, IG Group, has stated that their proportion of clients now classified as recently increased from 5% to 15% of their total customers.
The major impact these regulations will have on traders is simple ndash; the maximum trade size they can possibly make at brokers regulated in the European Union will shrink. Many will say that the maximum leverage limits still offer far more than any trader could need, and I agree. I am wary of leverage and I hate to see anyone using leverage greater than 3 to 1 for Forex under any conditions, or any leverage at all for stocks and cryptocurrencies. Commodities can also fluctuate wildly in value. Too many people forget that the biggest danger in leverage is not overly large position sizing, it is that a ldquo;black swan rdquo; event such as the CHF flash crash of 2015 could happen and wipe out your account through huge price slippage. However, there is another factor that is widely forgotten: why assume that a trader rsquo;s account at one Forex broker is all the money they have in the world? For example, a trader might have $10,000 in the bank. If they deposit $1,000 at a broker offering maximum leverage of 300 to 1, they can trade up to $300,000. At a leverage limit of 30 to 1, that trader will have to deposit their entire $10,000 fund to trade at the same size. In a real sense, that trader might now have to take on more risk to operate in the same way, because if the broker goes bust, while beforehand they might lose $1,000 now they could lose $10,000! Even without negative balance protection, that broker would still have to come after them to try to get an extra $9,000 which they theoretically risk. Yet we saw after the CHF crash that brokers don rsquo;t come after every single client whose losses exceeded their deposit, due to legal costs and reputational issues. This shows that although the stated purpose of the regulation is to protect traders from excessive losses, the story is not as simple as you may think.
Beyond having to deposit more margin, and automatic margin calls, the other major change for traders will be that they will enjoy negative balance protection. This is a positive development which hopefully will make brokerages focus more heavily on the risks they are taking with their business model in the market. At the same time, a possible side effect of the new regulation is the potential increase in average deposits, leading to brokerages being more stable and better capitalized with client funds. Two final notes: brokerages will have to report on their websites the percentages of clients who are losing and making money, although the period over which the statistics must refer to is currently not clear. This will help to shed light on the debate over what percentage of retail traders are profitable, although some brokerages have already released what they claim to be accurate statistics showing that clients with larger account sizes tend to perform better as traders. Additionally, bonuses and promotions will be banned. I welcome this, as not only do they trivialize the serious business of trading, they are almost always a trick offering the illusion of free money whilst preventing traders from withdrawing any profits until a large number of trades are made (read the fine print the next time you squo;).
What If Yoursquo;re Not Happy Remaining in the EU?
Traders with accounts at affected brokers who cannot obtain professional status classification and feel they really need higher leverage than the ESMA limits outlined above might look for a solution by opening accounts with brokers outside the European Union. The most obvious destination would be Australia or New Zealand, where it will still be possible to find reasonably well-regulated Forex brokerages offering leverage in the range of 400 to 1. A recent development that is not talked about much is the growing difficulty of transferring funds to and from Forex brokerages in less tightly regulated jurisdictions. You might decide to open an account with a brokerage in Vanuatu, but you may find that a bank within the European Union might just refuse to send your money there for a deposit. This means that going far offshore, depending upon where you live, may not be a feasible option. In any case, the new regule impossible to live with, and overall there is a compelling case that they are a net benefit to any trader, so why migrate?
Is the United Arab Emirates Economy Still Dependent on Oil? | Trading Forex
The United Arab Emirates is one of the top oil producers in the world. Although production of crude oil is the country’s most important economic activity, the UAE is working towards a more diversified economy by expansion into the non-fuel sector. This will help establish the United Arab Emirates as financial and international trade hub.
Although economic growth slowed 1.6% in 2015 from 2014, the growth rate was still respectable. Increased fiscal spending and smart investing helped soften the blow from the oil price crash. The UAE is still very dependent on oil; therefore, analysts give the country modest growth expectations.
The United Arab Emirates is a federation of seven emirates: Abu Dhabi, Ajman, Dubai, Sharjah, Fujairah, Umn al-Quwain and Ras al-Khaimah. While the federation is in charge of many areas including but not limited to foreign affairs, defense, currency, and immigration, the local governments have control over other issues. Markets, except for regulated industries such as water, electricity, and telecommunications, are open. The government prides itself on innovation, sustainability, and diversification and knows that dependence on one sector can lead to downfall.
The 2015 Oil Crash
The oil price crash in 2015 led the UAE government to limit oil’s contribution to the GDP to 20%. As such, Dubai limited its oil reserves and began to promote its tourism and services export sectors. These promotions have been so successful that now less than 5% of Dubai’s revenue comes from oil and a majority comes from hotel and restaurant fees, foreign bank fees, and royalties on oil. Government debt declined in 2014 due to surpluses from the two previous years. Fitch and Standard & Poor’s gave UAE a AA rating with a stable outlook and Moody’s gave an AA2 rating with a negative outlook.The UAE is currently the seventh largest oil producer in the world and has an extensive oil reserve. If the UAE continues production at the current pace, it would be able to produce oil for more than 90 years. The marginal production cost of one barrel is $7 USD. This has led to a strong dependence on oil. In 2014, 19% of the GDP was oil, 39% of exports were oil, and 35% of tax revenues were from oil. The UAE is extremely vulnerable and needs serious buffers in case of a shock to the oil market.
The currency of the UAE is called the Dirham and it is pegged to the USD at 0.2722. 1 USD is equal to 3.6725 Dh. In 2015 the government had a 78.4 billion USD foreign reserve which reduced the vulnerability of the peg due to falling demand for oil.
UAE’s Trade Zones
The United Arab Emirates has 37 free trade zones divided into business categories. The zones have favorable tax and business regulations such as no personal income tax, tax exemptions on imports and exports, and corporation tax exemptions of up to 50 years.The UAE connects three continents- Europe, Africa, and Asia. There is heavy investment in infrastructure. The UAE is home to market leading companies like Emirates Airlines and DP World. The airports in Dubai and Abu Dhabi as well as the Jebel Ali harbor have made the country a global center for finance and travel.
The country is a very attractive market for foreign investment. With a per capita GDP of $43,000 USD, the population is considered wealthy. UAE was ranked 17th in 2015-2016 by the World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Report. Foreign investors are also attracted to the favorable regulations and taxes. In the World Bank Ease of Doing Business report in 2016, the UAE scored well on construction permits, paying taxes and electricity. But the UAE still needs to work on other important issues such as getting credit and resolving insolvency. There is no minimum wage and there are loose hiring and firing practices. The population is young and well educated. The UAE is advanced relative to other countries in the Middle East because it is very open and very competitive but there are big hurdles to overcome with regards to financing and starting a business.
UAE’s Economic Growth
Economic growth in the UAE in non-oil sectors such as construction, hospitality, and transport services has remained strong. Agriculture production has declined steadily while goods production has grown steadily. The construction sector is expected to grow while the ICT industry is expected to decline.The UAE joined the WTO in 1996 and signed various trade and economic agreements with countries in Asia, Africa, Europe, South America, and Australia. The UAE is also part of the Gulf Cooperation Council. The UAE signed the Greater Arab Free Trade Area Agreement which allows to have free trade with Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Morocco, and Jordan. The GCC is currently negotiating free trade zones with the EU, Japan, China, India, Pakistan, Turkey, Australia, New Zealand, Korea and the Group of Mercosur and already has free trade agreements with Singapore, EFTA, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, New Zealand, and the Principality of Liechtenstein.
UAE’s Imports & Exports
UAE’s imports increased 7.9% in 2015 totaling $264.3 billion USD. The country’s top three import partners are China, India and the United States. Imports from China are expected to grow the fastest while imports from the US are expected to decline. Construction-related materials is the country’s largest import product group.Exports are expected to grow to US $196 billion. The largest export markets were Japan, India, and South Korea in 2015 but it is expected that China will overtake Japan by 2019. The biggest export product is oil but pharmaceuticals and vehicles and transport equipment are forecast to have the fastest annual growth rates.
While the UAE maintains a surplus in trade in goods, there is a deficit in trade. However, both import and export of services are growing.
With the UAE’s dedication to diversification and strong competitiveness, along with its favorable business environment, the economy of the United Arab Emirates should continue to be resilient.
Source
Is the United Arab Emirates Economy Still Dependent on Oil? | Trading Forex
The United Arab Emirates is one of the top oil producers in the world. Although production of crude oil is the country’s most important economic activity, the UAE is working towards a more diversified economy by expansion into the non-fuel sector. This will help establish the United Arab Emirates as financial and international trade hub.
Although economic growth slowed 1.6% in 2015 from 2014, the growth rate was still respectable. Increased fiscal spending and smart investing helped soften the blow from the oil price crash. The UAE is still very dependent on oil; therefore, analysts give the country modest growth expectations.
The United Arab Emirates is a federation of seven emirates: Abu Dhabi, Ajman, Dubai, Sharjah, Fujairah, Umn al-Quwain and Ras al-Khaimah. While the federation is in charge of many areas including but not limited to foreign affairs, defense, currency, and immigration, the local governments have control over other issues. Markets, except for regulated industries such as water, electricity, and telecommunications, are open. The government prides itself on innovation, sustainability, and diversification and knows that dependence on one sector can lead to downfall.
The 2015 Oil Crash
The oil price crash in 2015 led the UAE government to limit oil’s contribution to the GDP to 20%. As such, Dubai limited its oil reserves and began to promote its tourism and services export sectors. These promotions have been so successful that now less than 5% of Dubai’s revenue comes from oil and a majority comes from hotel and restaurant fees, foreign bank fees, and royalties on oil. Government debt declined in 2014 due to surpluses from the two previous years. Fitch and Standard & Poor’s gave UAE a AA rating with a stable outlook and Moody’s gave an AA2 rating with a negative outlook.The UAE is currently the seventh largest oil producer in the world and has an extensive oil reserve. If the UAE continues production at the current pace, it would be able to produce oil for more than 90 years. The marginal production cost of one barrel is $7 USD. This has led to a strong dependence on oil. In 2014, 19% of the GDP was oil, 39% of exports were oil, and 35% of tax revenues were from oil. The UAE is extremely vulnerable and needs serious buffers in case of a shock to the oil market.
The currency of the UAE is called the Dirham and it is pegged to the USD at 0.2722. 1 USD is equal to 3.6725 Dh. In 2015 the government had a 78.4 billion USD foreign reserve which reduced the vulnerability of the peg due to falling demand for oil.
UAE’s Trade Zones
The United Arab Emirates has 37 free trade zones divided into business categories. The zones have favorable tax and business regulations such as no personal income tax, tax exemptions on imports and exports, and corporation tax exemptions of up to 50 years.The UAE connects three continents- Europe, Africa, and Asia. There is heavy investment in infrastructure. The UAE is home to market leading companies like Emirates Airlines and DP World. The airports in Dubai and Abu Dhabi as well as the Jebel Ali harbor have made the country a global center for finance and travel.
The country is a very attractive market for foreign investment. With a per capita GDP of $43,000 USD, the population is considered wealthy. UAE was ranked 17th in 2015-2016 by the World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Report. Foreign investors are also attracted to the favorable regulations and taxes. In the World Bank Ease of Doing Business report in 2016, the UAE scored well on construction permits, paying taxes and electricity. But the UAE still needs to work on other important issues such as getting credit and resolving insolvency. There is no minimum wage and there are loose hiring and firing practices. The population is young and well educated. The UAE is advanced relative to other countries in the Middle East because it is very open and very competitive but there are big hurdles to overcome with regards to financing and starting a business.
UAE’s Economic Growth
Economic growth in the UAE in non-oil sectors such as construction, hospitality, and transport services has remained strong. Agriculture production has declined steadily while goods production has grown steadily. The construction sector is expected to grow while the ICT industry is expected to decline.The UAE joined the WTO in 1996 and signed various trade and economic agreements with countries in Asia, Africa, Europe, South America, and Australia. The UAE is also part of the Gulf Cooperation Council. The UAE signed the Greater Arab Free Trade Area Agreement which allows to have free trade with Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Morocco, and Jordan. The GCC is currently negotiating free trade zones with the EU, Japan, China, India, Pakistan, Turkey, Australia, New Zealand, Korea and the Group of Mercosur and already has free trade agreements with Singapore, EFTA, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, New Zealand, and the Principality of Liechtenstein.
UAE’s Imports & Exports
UAE’s imports increased 7.9% in 2015 totaling $264.3 billion USD. The country’s top three import partners are China, India and the United States. Imports from China are expected to grow the fastest while imports from the US are expected to decline. Construction-related materials is the country’s largest import product group.Exports are expected to grow to US $196 billion. The largest export markets were Japan, India, and South Korea in 2015 but it is expected that China will overtake Japan by 2019. The biggest export product is oil but pharmaceuticals and vehicles and transport equipment are forecast to have the fastest annual growth rates.
While the UAE maintains a surplus in trade in goods, there is a deficit in trade. However, both import and export of services are growing.
With the UAE’s dedication to diversification and strong competitiveness, along with its favorable business environment, the economy of the United Arab Emirates should continue to be resilient.
Source
Is the United Arab Emirates Economy Still Dependent on Oil? | Trading Forex
The United Arab Emirates is one of the top oil producers in the world. Although production of crude oil is the country’s most important economic activity, the UAE is working towards a more diversified economy by expansion into the non-fuel sector. This will help establish the United Arab Emirates as financial and international trade hub.
Although economic growth slowed 1.6% in 2015 from 2014, the growth rate was still respectable. Increased fiscal spending and smart investing helped soften the blow from the oil price crash. The UAE is still very dependent on oil; therefore, analysts give the country modest growth expectations.
The United Arab Emirates is a federation of seven emirates: Abu Dhabi, Ajman, Dubai, Sharjah, Fujairah, Umn al-Quwain and Ras al-Khaimah. While the federation is in charge of many areas including but not limited to foreign affairs, defense, currency, and immigration, the local governments have control over other issues. Markets, except for regulated industries such as water, electricity, and telecommunications, are open. The government prides itself on innovation, sustainability, and diversification and knows that dependence on one sector can lead to downfall.
The 2015 Oil Crash
The oil price crash in 2015 led the UAE government to limit oil’s contribution to the GDP to 20%. As such, Dubai limited its oil reserves and began to promote its tourism and services export sectors. These promotions have been so successful that now less than 5% of Dubai’s revenue comes from oil and a majority comes from hotel and restaurant fees, foreign bank fees, and royalties on oil. Government debt declined in 2014 due to surpluses from the two previous years. Fitch and Standard & Poor’s gave UAE a AA rating with a stable outlook and Moody’s gave an AA2 rating with a negative outlook.The UAE is currently the seventh largest oil producer in the world and has an extensive oil reserve. If the UAE continues production at the current pace, it would be able to produce oil for more than 90 years. The marginal production cost of one barrel is $7 USD. This has led to a strong dependence on oil. In 2014, 19% of the GDP was oil, 39% of exports were oil, and 35% of tax revenues were from oil. The UAE is extremely vulnerable and needs serious buffers in case of a shock to the oil market.
The currency of the UAE is called the Dirham and it is pegged to the USD at 0.2722. 1 USD is equal to 3.6725 Dh. In 2015 the government had a 78.4 billion USD foreign reserve which reduced the vulnerability of the peg due to falling demand for oil.
UAE’s Trade Zones
The United Arab Emirates has 37 free trade zones divided into business categories. The zones have favorable tax and business regulations such as no personal income tax, tax exemptions on imports and exports, and corporation tax exemptions of up to 50 years.The UAE connects three continents- Europe, Africa, and Asia. There is heavy investment in infrastructure. The UAE is home to market leading companies like Emirates Airlines and DP World. The airports in Dubai and Abu Dhabi as well as the Jebel Ali harbor have made the country a global center for finance and travel.
The country is a very attractive market for foreign investment. With a per capita GDP of $43,000 USD, the population is considered wealthy. UAE was ranked 17th in 2015-2016 by the World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Report. Foreign investors are also attracted to the favorable regulations and taxes. In the World Bank Ease of Doing Business report in 2016, the UAE scored well on construction permits, paying taxes and electricity. But the UAE still needs to work on other important issues such as getting credit and resolving insolvency. There is no minimum wage and there are loose hiring and firing practices. The population is young and well educated. The UAE is advanced relative to other countries in the Middle East because it is very open and very competitive but there are big hurdles to overcome with regards to financing and starting a business.
UAE’s Economic Growth
Economic growth in the UAE in non-oil sectors such as construction, hospitality, and transport services has remained strong. Agriculture production has declined steadily while goods production has grown steadily. The construction sector is expected to grow while the ICT industry is expected to decline.The UAE joined the WTO in 1996 and signed various trade and economic agreements with countries in Asia, Africa, Europe, South America, and Australia. The UAE is also part of the Gulf Cooperation Council. The UAE signed the Greater Arab Free Trade Area Agreement which allows to have free trade with Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Morocco, and Jordan. The GCC is currently negotiating free trade zones with the EU, Japan, China, India, Pakistan, Turkey, Australia, New Zealand, Korea and the Group of Mercosur and already has free trade agreements with Singapore, EFTA, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, New Zealand, and the Principality of Liechtenstein.
UAE’s Imports & Exports
UAE’s imports increased 7.9% in 2015 totaling $264.3 billion USD. The country’s top three import partners are China, India and the United States. Imports from China are expected to grow the fastest while imports from the US are expected to decline. Construction-related materials is the country’s largest import product group.Exports are expected to grow to US $196 billion. The largest export markets were Japan, India, and South Korea in 2015 but it is expected that China will overtake Japan by 2019. The biggest export product is oil but pharmaceuticals and vehicles and transport equipment are forecast to have the fastest annual growth rates.
While the UAE maintains a surplus in trade in goods, there is a deficit in trade. However, both import and export of services are growing.
With the UAE’s dedication to diversification and strong competitiveness, along with its favorable business environment, the economy of the United Arab Emirates should continue to be resilient.
Source
Is the United Arab Emirates Economy Still Dependent on Oil? | Trading Forex
The United Arab Emirates is one of the top oil producers in the world. Although production of crude oil is the country’s most important economic activity, the UAE is working towards a more diversified economy by expansion into the non-fuel sector. This will help establish the United Arab Emirates as financial and international trade hub.
Although economic growth slowed 1.6% in 2015 from 2014, the growth rate was still respectable. Increased fiscal spending and smart investing helped soften the blow from the oil price crash. The UAE is still very dependent on oil; therefore, analysts give the country modest growth expectations.
The United Arab Emirates is a federation of seven emirates: Abu Dhabi, Ajman, Dubai, Sharjah, Fujairah, Umn al-Quwain and Ras al-Khaimah. While the federation is in charge of many areas including but not limited to foreign affairs, defense, currency, and immigration, the local governments have control over other issues. Markets, except for regulated industries such as water, electricity, and telecommunications, are open. The government prides itself on innovation, sustainability, and diversification and knows that dependence on one sector can lead to downfall.
The 2015 Oil Crash
The oil price crash in 2015 led the UAE government to limit oil’s contribution to the GDP to 20%. As such, Dubai limited its oil reserves and began to promote its tourism and services export sectors. These promotions have been so successful that now less than 5% of Dubai’s revenue comes from oil and a majority comes from hotel and restaurant fees, foreign bank fees, and royalties on oil. Government debt declined in 2014 due to surpluses from the two previous years. Fitch and Standard & Poor’s gave UAE a AA rating with a stable outlook and Moody’s gave an AA2 rating with a negative outlook.The UAE is currently the seventh largest oil producer in the world and has an extensive oil reserve. If the UAE continues production at the current pace, it would be able to produce oil for more than 90 years. The marginal production cost of one barrel is $7 USD. This has led to a strong dependence on oil. In 2014, 19% of the GDP was oil, 39% of exports were oil, and 35% of tax revenues were from oil. The UAE is extremely vulnerable and needs serious buffers in case of a shock to the oil market.
The currency of the UAE is called the Dirham and it is pegged to the USD at 0.2722. 1 USD is equal to 3.6725 Dh. In 2015 the government had a 78.4 billion USD foreign reserve which reduced the vulnerability of the peg due to falling demand for oil.
UAE’s Trade Zones
The United Arab Emirates has 37 free trade zones divided into business categories. The zones have favorable tax and business regulations such as no personal income tax, tax exemptions on imports and exports, and corporation tax exemptions of up to 50 years.The UAE connects three continents- Europe, Africa, and Asia. There is heavy investment in infrastructure. The UAE is home to market leading companies like Emirates Airlines and DP World. The airports in Dubai and Abu Dhabi as well as the Jebel Ali harbor have made the country a global center for finance and travel.
The country is a very attractive market for foreign investment. With a per capita GDP of $43,000 USD, the population is considered wealthy. UAE was ranked 17th in 2015-2016 by the World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Report. Foreign investors are also attracted to the favorable regulations and taxes. In the World Bank Ease of Doing Business report in 2016, the UAE scored well on construction permits, paying taxes and electricity. But the UAE still needs to work on other important issues such as getting credit and resolving insolvency. There is no minimum wage and there are loose hiring and firing practices. The population is young and well educated. The UAE is advanced relative to other countries in the Middle East because it is very open and very competitive but there are big hurdles to overcome with regards to financing and starting a business.
UAE’s Economic Growth
Economic growth in the UAE in non-oil sectors such as construction, hospitality, and transport services has remained strong. Agriculture production has declined steadily while goods production has grown steadily. The construction sector is expected to grow while the ICT industry is expected to decline.The UAE joined the WTO in 1996 and signed various trade and economic agreements with countries in Asia, Africa, Europe, South America, and Australia. The UAE is also part of the Gulf Cooperation Council. The UAE signed the Greater Arab Free Trade Area Agreement which allows to have free trade with Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Morocco, and Jordan. The GCC is currently negotiating free trade zones with the EU, Japan, China, India, Pakistan, Turkey, Australia, New Zealand, Korea and the Group of Mercosur and already has free trade agreements with Singapore, EFTA, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, New Zealand, and the Principality of Liechtenstein.
UAE’s Imports & Exports
UAE’s imports increased 7.9% in 2015 totaling $264.3 billion USD. The country’s top three import partners are China, India and the United States. Imports from China are expected to grow the fastest while imports from the US are expected to decline. Construction-related materials is the country’s largest import product group.Exports are expected to grow to US $196 billion. The largest export markets were Japan, India, and South Korea in 2015 but it is expected that China will overtake Japan by 2019. The biggest export product is oil but pharmaceuticals and vehicles and transport equipment are forecast to have the fastest annual growth rates.
While the UAE maintains a surplus in trade in goods, there is a deficit in trade. However, both import and export of services are growing.
With the UAE’s dedication to diversification and strong competitiveness, along with its favorable business environment, the economy of the United Arab Emirates should continue to be resilient.
Source
Is the United Arab Emirates Economy Still Dependent on Oil? | Trading Forex
The United Arab Emirates is one of the top oil producers in the world. Although production of crude oil is the country’s most important economic activity, the UAE is working towards a more diversified economy by expansion into the non-fuel sector. This will help establish the United Arab Emirates as financial and international trade hub.
Although economic growth slowed 1.6% in 2015 from 2014, the growth rate was still respectable. Increased fiscal spending and smart investing helped soften the blow from the oil price crash. The UAE is still very dependent on oil; therefore, analysts give the country modest growth expectations.
The United Arab Emirates is a federation of seven emirates: Abu Dhabi, Ajman, Dubai, Sharjah, Fujairah, Umn al-Quwain and Ras al-Khaimah. While the federation is in charge of many areas including but not limited to foreign affairs, defense, currency, and immigration, the local governments have control over other issues. Markets, except for regulated industries such as water, electricity, and telecommunications, are open. The government prides itself on innovation, sustainability, and diversification and knows that dependence on one sector can lead to downfall.
The 2015 Oil Crash
The oil price crash in 2015 led the UAE government to limit oil’s contribution to the GDP to 20%. As such, Dubai limited its oil reserves and began to promote its tourism and services export sectors. These promotions have been so successful that now less than 5% of Dubai’s revenue comes from oil and a majority comes from hotel and restaurant fees, foreign bank fees, and royalties on oil. Government debt declined in 2014 due to surpluses from the two previous years. Fitch and Standard & Poor’s gave UAE a AA rating with a stable outlook and Moody’s gave an AA2 rating with a negative outlook.The UAE is currently the seventh largest oil producer in the world and has an extensive oil reserve. If the UAE continues production at the current pace, it would be able to produce oil for more than 90 years. The marginal production cost of one barrel is $7 USD. This has led to a strong dependence on oil. In 2014, 19% of the GDP was oil, 39% of exports were oil, and 35% of tax revenues were from oil. The UAE is extremely vulnerable and needs serious buffers in case of a shock to the oil market.
The currency of the UAE is called the Dirham and it is pegged to the USD at 0.2722. 1 USD is equal to 3.6725 Dh. In 2015 the government had a 78.4 billion USD foreign reserve which reduced the vulnerability of the peg due to falling demand for oil.
UAE’s Trade Zones
The United Arab Emirates has 37 free trade zones divided into business categories. The zones have favorable tax and business regulations such as no personal income tax, tax exemptions on imports and exports, and corporation tax exemptions of up to 50 years.The UAE connects three continents- Europe, Africa, and Asia. There is heavy investment in infrastructure. The UAE is home to market leading companies like Emirates Airlines and DP World. The airports in Dubai and Abu Dhabi as well as the Jebel Ali harbor have made the country a global center for finance and travel.
The country is a very attractive market for foreign investment. With a per capita GDP of $43,000 USD, the population is considered wealthy. UAE was ranked 17th in 2015-2016 by the World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Report. Foreign investors are also attracted to the favorable regulations and taxes. In the World Bank Ease of Doing Business report in 2016, the UAE scored well on construction permits, paying taxes and electricity. But the UAE still needs to work on other important issues such as getting credit and resolving insolvency. There is no minimum wage and there are loose hiring and firing practices. The population is young and well educated. The UAE is advanced relative to other countries in the Middle East because it is very open and very competitive but there are big hurdles to overcome with regards to financing and starting a business.
UAE’s Economic Growth
Economic growth in the UAE in non-oil sectors such as construction, hospitality, and transport services has remained strong. Agriculture production has declined steadily while goods production has grown steadily. The construction sector is expected to grow while the ICT industry is expected to decline.The UAE joined the WTO in 1996 and signed various trade and economic agreements with countries in Asia, Africa, Europe, South America, and Australia. The UAE is also part of the Gulf Cooperation Council. The UAE signed the Greater Arab Free Trade Area Agreement which allows to have free trade with Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Morocco, and Jordan. The GCC is currently negotiating free trade zones with the EU, Japan, China, India, Pakistan, Turkey, Australia, New Zealand, Korea and the Group of Mercosur and already has free trade agreements with Singapore, EFTA, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, New Zealand, and the Principality of Liechtenstein.
UAE’s Imports & Exports
UAE’s imports increased 7.9% in 2015 totaling $264.3 billion USD. The country’s top three import partners are China, India and the United States. Imports from China are expected to grow the fastest while imports from the US are expected to decline. Construction-related materials is the country’s largest import product group.Exports are expected to grow to US $196 billion. The largest export markets were Japan, India, and South Korea in 2015 but it is expected that China will overtake Japan by 2019. The biggest export product is oil but pharmaceuticals and vehicles and transport equipment are forecast to have the fastest annual growth rates.
While the UAE maintains a surplus in trade in goods, there is a deficit in trade. However, both import and export of services are growing.
With the UAE’s dedication to diversification and strong competitiveness, along with its favorable business environment, the economy of the United Arab Emirates should continue to be resilient.
Source
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