ESMA Regulations – What Will Less Leverage Mean? | Trading Forex
The European Union has published new regulations applying to retail Forex, CFD, and the few remaining binary options brokerages in its territory. If you have an account with one such brokerage, the regulations will affect you when they come into force during the late spring and summer. This article will outline how the new regulations will impact your bottom line.
Details of the New ESMA Regulations
In March 2018, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), the financial regulator and supervisor of the European Union, announced new regulations concerning the provision of contracts for differences (CFDs) and binary options to retail investors. It is unclear exactly when the regulations will come into force, but some time in May or June 2018 looks to be the most likely date, and Forex and CFD brokerages located within the European Union (including the United Kingdom, for the time being) will be forced to comply. The regulations will need to be renewed by ESMA every three months to remain in force over the long term.
The regulation concerning binary options is very simple: they may not be sold. In simple terms, this is the end of binary options as a product sold from within the European Union.
The regulations concerning CFDs are more complex but still relatively straightforward. Firstly, there is some confusion as to what exactly is a CFD, with many traders thinking that spot Forex is not considered a CFD and will therefore be exempt from the new regulations. They are wrong: spot Forex is technically defined as a CFD. In fact, every asset you see available for trading at Forex / CFD brokers will most likely be subject to the new regulations.
The new regulations will implement the following changes for retail client accounts (more on who is a retail client; later).
-
The maximum leverage which can be offered will be 30 to 1. That will apply to major currency pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, etc.
-
Other currency pairs, major equity indices, and gold will be subject to a maximum leverage of 20 to 1.
-
Individual equities cannot be offered with leverage greater than 5 to 1.
-
Cryptocurrencies are subject to a maximum leverage of 2 to 1.
-
Brokers will be required to provide negative balance protection, meaning it will be impossible to lose more money than you deposit.
-
Brokers will be required to close a clients open positions when the account equity reaches 50% of the required minimum margin by all open positions. This ;margin call; provision can be tricky to understand, so will be explained in more detail later.
-
Bonuses or any other form of trading incentives may not be offered.
-
Brokers will be required to display a standardized risk warning which will include the percentage of their clients who lose money over a defined period.
Understanding the ;Margin Call; Regulation
The best way to understand the 50% margin call provision is to use an example. Imagine a client opens an account with a Forex broker, depositing ;100 in total. The client opens a short trade in EUR/USD, by going short one mini-lot (one tenth of a full lot). One full lot of EUR/USD is worth ;10,000, meaning one mini-lot is worth ;1,000. To find out the minimum margin required to support that trade, we divide the size of the trade (;1,000) by 30, which comes to ;33.33. This is the minimum required margin to maintain the trade. Half of that amount is ;16.67. Now assume the trade goes against the client, with the price of EUR/USD rising above the entry price. As soon as the price rises far enough to produce a floating loss of ;83.33 (;100 - ;16.67), the broker must close the trade out, even if the trade has no stop loss or has not yet reached the stop loss. In theory, this means that a client;s account can never reach zero. Examples involving multiple open trades will be more complex, but will operate according to the same principles.
What Will This Mean for Traders?
The regulations will only apply to ;retail clients;, so you might try to apply to be classed as a professional trader. To get a broker to classify you as anything other than a retail client, you will have to show you have financial qualifications, a large amount of liquid assets, plenty of experience trading, and usually that you also trade frequently. Most traders will be unable to qualify, although it is worth noting that one London-based brokerage, IG Group, has stated that their proportion of clients now classified as recently increased from 5% to 15% of their total customers.
The major impact these regulations will have on traders is simple ndash; the maximum trade size they can possibly make at brokers regulated in the European Union will shrink. Many will say that the maximum leverage limits still offer far more than any trader could need, and I agree. I am wary of leverage and I hate to see anyone using leverage greater than 3 to 1 for Forex under any conditions, or any leverage at all for stocks and cryptocurrencies. Commodities can also fluctuate wildly in value. Too many people forget that the biggest danger in leverage is not overly large position sizing, it is that a ldquo;black swan rdquo; event such as the CHF flash crash of 2015 could happen and wipe out your account through huge price slippage. However, there is another factor that is widely forgotten: why assume that a trader rsquo;s account at one Forex broker is all the money they have in the world? For example, a trader might have $10,000 in the bank. If they deposit $1,000 at a broker offering maximum leverage of 300 to 1, they can trade up to $300,000. At a leverage limit of 30 to 1, that trader will have to deposit their entire $10,000 fund to trade at the same size. In a real sense, that trader might now have to take on more risk to operate in the same way, because if the broker goes bust, while beforehand they might lose $1,000 now they could lose $10,000! Even without negative balance protection, that broker would still have to come after them to try to get an extra $9,000 which they theoretically risk. Yet we saw after the CHF crash that brokers don rsquo;t come after every single client whose losses exceeded their deposit, due to legal costs and reputational issues. This shows that although the stated purpose of the regulation is to protect traders from excessive losses, the story is not as simple as you may think.
Beyond having to deposit more margin, and automatic margin calls, the other major change for traders will be that they will enjoy negative balance protection. This is a positive development which hopefully will make brokerages focus more heavily on the risks they are taking with their business model in the market. At the same time, a possible side effect of the new regulation is the potential increase in average deposits, leading to brokerages being more stable and better capitalized with client funds. Two final notes: brokerages will have to report on their websites the percentages of clients who are losing and making money, although the period over which the statistics must refer to is currently not clear. This will help to shed light on the debate over what percentage of retail traders are profitable, although some brokerages have already released what they claim to be accurate statistics showing that clients with larger account sizes tend to perform better as traders. Additionally, bonuses and promotions will be banned. I welcome this, as not only do they trivialize the serious business of trading, they are almost always a trick offering the illusion of free money whilst preventing traders from withdrawing any profits until a large number of trades are made (read the fine print the next time you squo;).
What If Yoursquo;re Not Happy Remaining in the EU?
Traders with accounts at affected brokers who cannot obtain professional status classification and feel they really need higher leverage than the ESMA limits outlined above might look for a solution by opening accounts with brokers outside the European Union. The most obvious destination would be Australia or New Zealand, where it will still be possible to find reasonably well-regulated Forex brokerages offering leverage in the range of 400 to 1. A recent development that is not talked about much is the growing difficulty of transferring funds to and from Forex brokerages in less tightly regulated jurisdictions. You might decide to open an account with a brokerage in Vanuatu, but you may find that a bank within the European Union might just refuse to send your money there for a deposit. This means that going far offshore, depending upon where you live, may not be a feasible option. In any case, the new regule impossible to live with, and overall there is a compelling case that they are a net benefit to any trader, so why migrate?
Understanding the Major Forex Global Currencies | Trading Forex
Far too many Forex traders make the mistake of not thinking about what they are trading beyond price fluctuations on a screen. While it is true in trading that price is king and also that prices are never too high to go higher or too low to go lower, you will trade better over time if you have some understanding of what makes the currencies you are trading unique. Understanding the major Forex global currencies will make you a better, a more focused, and more profitable trader.
Which are the Major Forex Global Currencies?
There are eight currencies that are most important in the Forex universe. They are as follows, more or less in the consensus order of importance:USD (U.S. Dollar)
EUR (Euro)
JPY (Japanese Yen)
GBP (British Pound)
CAD (Canadian Dollar)
CHF (Swiss Franc)
AUD (Australian Dollar)
NZD (New Zealand Dollar)
Additionally, the Chinese Yuan (CNY) is becoming increasingly important, although it is not yet fully convertible. There is an “onshore” Yuan and an “offshore” Yuan, the latter of which is offered for trading by many Forex brokers.
The ranking shown above was not simply ordered by relative GDP or any other economic indicator. Instead, the layering of importance given to the various currencies takes into account convertibility, use as a global reserve, and correlation with important commodities. For example, there are several countries, such as India, which have much larger economies than Switzerland or Australia. However, Australia is an important producer of gold and several other commodities which are used in manufacturing, while Switzerland’s banks hold a huge proportion of global private capital and especially gold, giving both of these currencies weights beyond the national economies which they represent. You must think beyond simple economics to succeed in understanding the major Forex global currencies.
Currencies are National Debt
All modern currencies are paper backed by nothing more than the promise of the central bank of the nation to honor the obligation. Currencies are 100% debt.USD is King
The first thing any Forex trader should be mindful of in understanding the major Forex global currencies is that the USD is of primary importance. All of the other currencies are judged first of all in their worth against the USD. Therefore you can trade Forex much more simply by focusing on the seven other currencies paired with the USD instead of worrying about every possible permutation, although there are a few exceptions.The importance of the USD is due not only to the huge size of the U.S. economy, which is larger than that of any other nation, and almost as large as the entire Eurozone. It is due also to the U.S.A.’s unique position as the architect of the global financial system and the world’s only superpower. The U.S. dollar is the major reserve currency of the world, and there is greater cash wealth held in U.S. dollars than in any other currency.
This means that the USD is usually going to be the major driver of currency movements. If people around the world want to hold USD, it will go up and tend to push most other currencies down, and vice versa. Over the past 15 years, the USD has trended more predictably and strongly than any other major global Forex currency, which is something that helps in understanding the major global Forex currencies.
“Safety” vs. “Risk” Currencies
For various reasons, the market tends to see the following currencies as safe havens, so they tend to increase in relative value when there is market turmoil caused by fear over global economic prospects: USD, JPY, and EUR. The CHF used to be the ultimate safety currency, but is seen as less so due to some wild revaluations triggered by the Swiss National Bank, and also due to its very high negative interest rate of -0.75%.The other currencies tend to perform well when there are good prospects for global economic growth. An appreciation of risk on against risk off sentiment is a big help in understanding the major global Forex currencies.
Commodity Currencies
Certain currencies are very highly positively correlated with the prices of various commodities, as these countries are large producers of the commodities in question. Major examples are the CAD, which is positively correlated with the price of Crude Oil, and the AUD, which is positively correlated with the price of Gold. The NZD tends to do well when there is rising demand for dairy products and lamb.Liquidity
Most traders will notice that different currency pairs have different “personalities”: some are very volatile and move quickly (a good example is GBP/JPY), while others tend to only move by going two steps forward, one step back (the perfect example being EUR/USD). This is because of the liquidities of the respective currencies. There are more Euros and U.S. dollars than any other currencies and this is why their prices tend to move quite slowly. However, when you look at currencies such as the GBP, JPY and CHF, there are much smaller amounts involved, and when they either strongly in or out of demand, a liquidity squeeze can result in the price moving very fast.Time of Day
Generally, currency rates move the most during London and New York business hours, but also during their home business hours. This means for example that the GBP tends to be quite flat during the early part of the Tokyo session, but that there will tend to be less activity in the Australian and New Zealand dollars except during the earlier London and later New York sessions, which overlap to some extent with the “home” business hours. This is partly due to the fact that currency rates are often moved by economic data releases and central bank statements that of course are scheduled during home business hours.While the factors covered within this article are not going to be the first or only things that traders are going to be thinking about, keeping this information in mind can help traders to be more flexible and successful when trading particular currencies.
Source
Understanding the Major Forex Global Currencies | Trading Forex
Far too many Forex traders make the mistake of not thinking about what they are trading beyond price fluctuations on a screen. While it is true in trading that price is king and also that prices are never too high to go higher or too low to go lower, you will trade better over time if you have some understanding of what makes the currencies you are trading unique. Understanding the major Forex global currencies will make you a better, a more focused, and more profitable trader.
Which are the Major Forex Global Currencies?
There are eight currencies that are most important in the Forex universe. They are as follows, more or less in the consensus order of importance:USD (U.S. Dollar)
EUR (Euro)
JPY (Japanese Yen)
GBP (British Pound)
CAD (Canadian Dollar)
CHF (Swiss Franc)
AUD (Australian Dollar)
NZD (New Zealand Dollar)
Additionally, the Chinese Yuan (CNY) is becoming increasingly important, although it is not yet fully convertible. There is an “onshore” Yuan and an “offshore” Yuan, the latter of which is offered for trading by many Forex brokers.
The ranking shown above was not simply ordered by relative GDP or any other economic indicator. Instead, the layering of importance given to the various currencies takes into account convertibility, use as a global reserve, and correlation with important commodities. For example, there are several countries, such as India, which have much larger economies than Switzerland or Australia. However, Australia is an important producer of gold and several other commodities which are used in manufacturing, while Switzerland’s banks hold a huge proportion of global private capital and especially gold, giving both of these currencies weights beyond the national economies which they represent. You must think beyond simple economics to succeed in understanding the major Forex global currencies.
Currencies are National Debt
All modern currencies are paper backed by nothing more than the promise of the central bank of the nation to honor the obligation. Currencies are 100% debt.USD is King
The first thing any Forex trader should be mindful of in understanding the major Forex global currencies is that the USD is of primary importance. All of the other currencies are judged first of all in their worth against the USD. Therefore you can trade Forex much more simply by focusing on the seven other currencies paired with the USD instead of worrying about every possible permutation, although there are a few exceptions.The importance of the USD is due not only to the huge size of the U.S. economy, which is larger than that of any other nation, and almost as large as the entire Eurozone. It is due also to the U.S.A.’s unique position as the architect of the global financial system and the world’s only superpower. The U.S. dollar is the major reserve currency of the world, and there is greater cash wealth held in U.S. dollars than in any other currency.
This means that the USD is usually going to be the major driver of currency movements. If people around the world want to hold USD, it will go up and tend to push most other currencies down, and vice versa. Over the past 15 years, the USD has trended more predictably and strongly than any other major global Forex currency, which is something that helps in understanding the major global Forex currencies.
“Safety” vs. “Risk” Currencies
For various reasons, the market tends to see the following currencies as safe havens, so they tend to increase in relative value when there is market turmoil caused by fear over global economic prospects: USD, JPY, and EUR. The CHF used to be the ultimate safety currency, but is seen as less so due to some wild revaluations triggered by the Swiss National Bank, and also due to its very high negative interest rate of -0.75%.The other currencies tend to perform well when there are good prospects for global economic growth. An appreciation of risk on against risk off sentiment is a big help in understanding the major global Forex currencies.
Commodity Currencies
Certain currencies are very highly positively correlated with the prices of various commodities, as these countries are large producers of the commodities in question. Major examples are the CAD, which is positively correlated with the price of Crude Oil, and the AUD, which is positively correlated with the price of Gold. The NZD tends to do well when there is rising demand for dairy products and lamb.Liquidity
Most traders will notice that different currency pairs have different “personalities”: some are very volatile and move quickly (a good example is GBP/JPY), while others tend to only move by going two steps forward, one step back (the perfect example being EUR/USD). This is because of the liquidities of the respective currencies. There are more Euros and U.S. dollars than any other currencies and this is why their prices tend to move quite slowly. However, when you look at currencies such as the GBP, JPY and CHF, there are much smaller amounts involved, and when they either strongly in or out of demand, a liquidity squeeze can result in the price moving very fast.Time of Day
Generally, currency rates move the most during London and New York business hours, but also during their home business hours. This means for example that the GBP tends to be quite flat during the early part of the Tokyo session, but that there will tend to be less activity in the Australian and New Zealand dollars except during the earlier London and later New York sessions, which overlap to some extent with the “home” business hours. This is partly due to the fact that currency rates are often moved by economic data releases and central bank statements that of course are scheduled during home business hours.While the factors covered within this article are not going to be the first or only things that traders are going to be thinking about, keeping this information in mind can help traders to be more flexible and successful when trading particular currencies.
Source
Understanding the Major Forex Global Currencies | Trading Forex
Far too many Forex traders make the mistake of not thinking about what they are trading beyond price fluctuations on a screen. While it is true in trading that price is king and also that prices are never too high to go higher or too low to go lower, you will trade better over time if you have some understanding of what makes the currencies you are trading unique. Understanding the major Forex global currencies will make you a better, a more focused, and more profitable trader.
Which are the Major Forex Global Currencies?
There are eight currencies that are most important in the Forex universe. They are as follows, more or less in the consensus order of importance:USD (U.S. Dollar)
EUR (Euro)
JPY (Japanese Yen)
GBP (British Pound)
CAD (Canadian Dollar)
CHF (Swiss Franc)
AUD (Australian Dollar)
NZD (New Zealand Dollar)
Additionally, the Chinese Yuan (CNY) is becoming increasingly important, although it is not yet fully convertible. There is an “onshore” Yuan and an “offshore” Yuan, the latter of which is offered for trading by many Forex brokers.
The ranking shown above was not simply ordered by relative GDP or any other economic indicator. Instead, the layering of importance given to the various currencies takes into account convertibility, use as a global reserve, and correlation with important commodities. For example, there are several countries, such as India, which have much larger economies than Switzerland or Australia. However, Australia is an important producer of gold and several other commodities which are used in manufacturing, while Switzerland’s banks hold a huge proportion of global private capital and especially gold, giving both of these currencies weights beyond the national economies which they represent. You must think beyond simple economics to succeed in understanding the major Forex global currencies.
Currencies are National Debt
All modern currencies are paper backed by nothing more than the promise of the central bank of the nation to honor the obligation. Currencies are 100% debt.USD is King
The first thing any Forex trader should be mindful of in understanding the major Forex global currencies is that the USD is of primary importance. All of the other currencies are judged first of all in their worth against the USD. Therefore you can trade Forex much more simply by focusing on the seven other currencies paired with the USD instead of worrying about every possible permutation, although there are a few exceptions.The importance of the USD is due not only to the huge size of the U.S. economy, which is larger than that of any other nation, and almost as large as the entire Eurozone. It is due also to the U.S.A.’s unique position as the architect of the global financial system and the world’s only superpower. The U.S. dollar is the major reserve currency of the world, and there is greater cash wealth held in U.S. dollars than in any other currency.
This means that the USD is usually going to be the major driver of currency movements. If people around the world want to hold USD, it will go up and tend to push most other currencies down, and vice versa. Over the past 15 years, the USD has trended more predictably and strongly than any other major global Forex currency, which is something that helps in understanding the major global Forex currencies.
“Safety” vs. “Risk” Currencies
For various reasons, the market tends to see the following currencies as safe havens, so they tend to increase in relative value when there is market turmoil caused by fear over global economic prospects: USD, JPY, and EUR. The CHF used to be the ultimate safety currency, but is seen as less so due to some wild revaluations triggered by the Swiss National Bank, and also due to its very high negative interest rate of -0.75%.The other currencies tend to perform well when there are good prospects for global economic growth. An appreciation of risk on against risk off sentiment is a big help in understanding the major global Forex currencies.
Commodity Currencies
Certain currencies are very highly positively correlated with the prices of various commodities, as these countries are large producers of the commodities in question. Major examples are the CAD, which is positively correlated with the price of Crude Oil, and the AUD, which is positively correlated with the price of Gold. The NZD tends to do well when there is rising demand for dairy products and lamb.Liquidity
Most traders will notice that different currency pairs have different “personalities”: some are very volatile and move quickly (a good example is GBP/JPY), while others tend to only move by going two steps forward, one step back (the perfect example being EUR/USD). This is because of the liquidities of the respective currencies. There are more Euros and U.S. dollars than any other currencies and this is why their prices tend to move quite slowly. However, when you look at currencies such as the GBP, JPY and CHF, there are much smaller amounts involved, and when they either strongly in or out of demand, a liquidity squeeze can result in the price moving very fast.Time of Day
Generally, currency rates move the most during London and New York business hours, but also during their home business hours. This means for example that the GBP tends to be quite flat during the early part of the Tokyo session, but that there will tend to be less activity in the Australian and New Zealand dollars except during the earlier London and later New York sessions, which overlap to some extent with the “home” business hours. This is partly due to the fact that currency rates are often moved by economic data releases and central bank statements that of course are scheduled during home business hours.While the factors covered within this article are not going to be the first or only things that traders are going to be thinking about, keeping this information in mind can help traders to be more flexible and successful when trading particular currencies.
Source
Understanding the Major Forex Global Currencies | Trading Forex
Far too many Forex traders make the mistake of not thinking about what they are trading beyond price fluctuations on a screen. While it is true in trading that price is king and also that prices are never too high to go higher or too low to go lower, you will trade better over time if you have some understanding of what makes the currencies you are trading unique. Understanding the major Forex global currencies will make you a better, a more focused, and more profitable trader.
Which are the Major Forex Global Currencies?
There are eight currencies that are most important in the Forex universe. They are as follows, more or less in the consensus order of importance:USD (U.S. Dollar)
EUR (Euro)
JPY (Japanese Yen)
GBP (British Pound)
CAD (Canadian Dollar)
CHF (Swiss Franc)
AUD (Australian Dollar)
NZD (New Zealand Dollar)
Additionally, the Chinese Yuan (CNY) is becoming increasingly important, although it is not yet fully convertible. There is an “onshore” Yuan and an “offshore” Yuan, the latter of which is offered for trading by many Forex brokers.
The ranking shown above was not simply ordered by relative GDP or any other economic indicator. Instead, the layering of importance given to the various currencies takes into account convertibility, use as a global reserve, and correlation with important commodities. For example, there are several countries, such as India, which have much larger economies than Switzerland or Australia. However, Australia is an important producer of gold and several other commodities which are used in manufacturing, while Switzerland’s banks hold a huge proportion of global private capital and especially gold, giving both of these currencies weights beyond the national economies which they represent. You must think beyond simple economics to succeed in understanding the major Forex global currencies.
Currencies are National Debt
All modern currencies are paper backed by nothing more than the promise of the central bank of the nation to honor the obligation. Currencies are 100% debt.USD is King
The first thing any Forex trader should be mindful of in understanding the major Forex global currencies is that the USD is of primary importance. All of the other currencies are judged first of all in their worth against the USD. Therefore you can trade Forex much more simply by focusing on the seven other currencies paired with the USD instead of worrying about every possible permutation, although there are a few exceptions.The importance of the USD is due not only to the huge size of the U.S. economy, which is larger than that of any other nation, and almost as large as the entire Eurozone. It is due also to the U.S.A.’s unique position as the architect of the global financial system and the world’s only superpower. The U.S. dollar is the major reserve currency of the world, and there is greater cash wealth held in U.S. dollars than in any other currency.
This means that the USD is usually going to be the major driver of currency movements. If people around the world want to hold USD, it will go up and tend to push most other currencies down, and vice versa. Over the past 15 years, the USD has trended more predictably and strongly than any other major global Forex currency, which is something that helps in understanding the major global Forex currencies.
“Safety” vs. “Risk” Currencies
For various reasons, the market tends to see the following currencies as safe havens, so they tend to increase in relative value when there is market turmoil caused by fear over global economic prospects: USD, JPY, and EUR. The CHF used to be the ultimate safety currency, but is seen as less so due to some wild revaluations triggered by the Swiss National Bank, and also due to its very high negative interest rate of -0.75%.The other currencies tend to perform well when there are good prospects for global economic growth. An appreciation of risk on against risk off sentiment is a big help in understanding the major global Forex currencies.
Commodity Currencies
Certain currencies are very highly positively correlated with the prices of various commodities, as these countries are large producers of the commodities in question. Major examples are the CAD, which is positively correlated with the price of Crude Oil, and the AUD, which is positively correlated with the price of Gold. The NZD tends to do well when there is rising demand for dairy products and lamb.Liquidity
Most traders will notice that different currency pairs have different “personalities”: some are very volatile and move quickly (a good example is GBP/JPY), while others tend to only move by going two steps forward, one step back (the perfect example being EUR/USD). This is because of the liquidities of the respective currencies. There are more Euros and U.S. dollars than any other currencies and this is why their prices tend to move quite slowly. However, when you look at currencies such as the GBP, JPY and CHF, there are much smaller amounts involved, and when they either strongly in or out of demand, a liquidity squeeze can result in the price moving very fast.Time of Day
Generally, currency rates move the most during London and New York business hours, but also during their home business hours. This means for example that the GBP tends to be quite flat during the early part of the Tokyo session, but that there will tend to be less activity in the Australian and New Zealand dollars except during the earlier London and later New York sessions, which overlap to some extent with the “home” business hours. This is partly due to the fact that currency rates are often moved by economic data releases and central bank statements that of course are scheduled during home business hours.While the factors covered within this article are not going to be the first or only things that traders are going to be thinking about, keeping this information in mind can help traders to be more flexible and successful when trading particular currencies.
Source
Understanding the Major Forex Global Currencies | Trading Forex
Far too many Forex traders make the mistake of not thinking about what they are trading beyond price fluctuations on a screen. While it is true in trading that price is king and also that prices are never too high to go higher or too low to go lower, you will trade better over time if you have some understanding of what makes the currencies you are trading unique. Understanding the major Forex global currencies will make you a better, a more focused, and more profitable trader.
Which are the Major Forex Global Currencies?
There are eight currencies that are most important in the Forex universe. They are as follows, more or less in the consensus order of importance:USD (U.S. Dollar)
EUR (Euro)
JPY (Japanese Yen)
GBP (British Pound)
CAD (Canadian Dollar)
CHF (Swiss Franc)
AUD (Australian Dollar)
NZD (New Zealand Dollar)
Additionally, the Chinese Yuan (CNY) is becoming increasingly important, although it is not yet fully convertible. There is an “onshore” Yuan and an “offshore” Yuan, the latter of which is offered for trading by many Forex brokers.
The ranking shown above was not simply ordered by relative GDP or any other economic indicator. Instead, the layering of importance given to the various currencies takes into account convertibility, use as a global reserve, and correlation with important commodities. For example, there are several countries, such as India, which have much larger economies than Switzerland or Australia. However, Australia is an important producer of gold and several other commodities which are used in manufacturing, while Switzerland’s banks hold a huge proportion of global private capital and especially gold, giving both of these currencies weights beyond the national economies which they represent. You must think beyond simple economics to succeed in understanding the major Forex global currencies.
Currencies are National Debt
All modern currencies are paper backed by nothing more than the promise of the central bank of the nation to honor the obligation. Currencies are 100% debt.USD is King
The first thing any Forex trader should be mindful of in understanding the major Forex global currencies is that the USD is of primary importance. All of the other currencies are judged first of all in their worth against the USD. Therefore you can trade Forex much more simply by focusing on the seven other currencies paired with the USD instead of worrying about every possible permutation, although there are a few exceptions.The importance of the USD is due not only to the huge size of the U.S. economy, which is larger than that of any other nation, and almost as large as the entire Eurozone. It is due also to the U.S.A.’s unique position as the architect of the global financial system and the world’s only superpower. The U.S. dollar is the major reserve currency of the world, and there is greater cash wealth held in U.S. dollars than in any other currency.
This means that the USD is usually going to be the major driver of currency movements. If people around the world want to hold USD, it will go up and tend to push most other currencies down, and vice versa. Over the past 15 years, the USD has trended more predictably and strongly than any other major global Forex currency, which is something that helps in understanding the major global Forex currencies.
“Safety” vs. “Risk” Currencies
For various reasons, the market tends to see the following currencies as safe havens, so they tend to increase in relative value when there is market turmoil caused by fear over global economic prospects: USD, JPY, and EUR. The CHF used to be the ultimate safety currency, but is seen as less so due to some wild revaluations triggered by the Swiss National Bank, and also due to its very high negative interest rate of -0.75%.The other currencies tend to perform well when there are good prospects for global economic growth. An appreciation of risk on against risk off sentiment is a big help in understanding the major global Forex currencies.
Commodity Currencies
Certain currencies are very highly positively correlated with the prices of various commodities, as these countries are large producers of the commodities in question. Major examples are the CAD, which is positively correlated with the price of Crude Oil, and the AUD, which is positively correlated with the price of Gold. The NZD tends to do well when there is rising demand for dairy products and lamb.Liquidity
Most traders will notice that different currency pairs have different “personalities”: some are very volatile and move quickly (a good example is GBP/JPY), while others tend to only move by going two steps forward, one step back (the perfect example being EUR/USD). This is because of the liquidities of the respective currencies. There are more Euros and U.S. dollars than any other currencies and this is why their prices tend to move quite slowly. However, when you look at currencies such as the GBP, JPY and CHF, there are much smaller amounts involved, and when they either strongly in or out of demand, a liquidity squeeze can result in the price moving very fast.Time of Day
Generally, currency rates move the most during London and New York business hours, but also during their home business hours. This means for example that the GBP tends to be quite flat during the early part of the Tokyo session, but that there will tend to be less activity in the Australian and New Zealand dollars except during the earlier London and later New York sessions, which overlap to some extent with the “home” business hours. This is partly due to the fact that currency rates are often moved by economic data releases and central bank statements that of course are scheduled during home business hours.While the factors covered within this article are not going to be the first or only things that traders are going to be thinking about, keeping this information in mind can help traders to be more flexible and successful when trading particular currencies.
Source
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